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Stop invasion! The electoral tipping point in anti-immigrant voting

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Bordignon

    (Catholic University, Milan)

  • Matteo Gamalerio

    (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB)

  • Edoardo Slerca

    (Universita' della Svizzera Italiana)

  • Gilberto Turati

    (Catholic University, Rome)

Abstract

Why do anti-immigrant political parties have more success in areas that host fewer immigrants? Using regression discontinuity design, structural breaks search methods and data from a sample of Italian municipalities, we show that the relationship between the vote shares of anti-immigrant parties and the share of immigrants follows a U-shaped curve, which exhibits a tipping-like behavior around a share of immigrants equal to 3.35 %. We estimate that the vote share of the main Italian anti-immigrant party (Lega Nord) is approximately 6 % points higher for municipalities below the threshold. Using data on local labor market characteristics and on the incomes of natives and immigrants, we provide evidence which points at the competition in the local labor market between natives and immigrants as the more plausible explanation for the electoral success of anti-immigrant parties in areas with low shares of immigrants. Alternative stories find less support in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Bordignon & Matteo Gamalerio & Edoardo Slerca & Gilberto Turati, 2019. "Stop invasion! The electoral tipping point in anti-immigrant voting," Working Papers 2019/11, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    • Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2019-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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