Beauty Contested. How much of Keynes’ remains in Behavioural Economics Beauty Contests?
In one of the most famous passages of economic literature, John Maynard Keynes (1936, p.156) likens the stock market to a beauty contest in which the winners are those who anticipate the average opinion. Recently there have been attempts at investigating the BC experimentally (Nagel 1995, Duffy & Nagel 1997, Ho et al. 1998, Bosch-Domenech et al. 2002, Güth et al. 2002). In Experimental Beauty Contests, participants choose a real number from a closed interval, e.g. I [0,100]. Whoever picks the number closest to p times the average (usuallywith p = 2/3) is the winner of a monetary reward. An experiment like this is dominance solvable: the process of iterated elimination of dominated strategies leads to the unique and stable equilibrium at which every player chooses zero, and every player wins. Keynes’ metaphor, on the other hand, referred to a situation in which not all participants can win, so that the goal of individual investors and speculators must be “to outwit the crowd” (p. 152). Despite the differences, the Keynesian theory of decision under uncertainty tallies with the behaviour observed in Experimental Beauty Contests.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Corso Unione Sovietica, 218bis - 10134 Torino - Italy|
Phone: +39 011 6706060
Fax: +39 011 6706062
Web page: http://www.esomas.unito.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rosemarie Nagel & Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Albert Satorra & José García Montalvo, 1999.
"One, two, (three), infinity: Newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments,"
Economics Working Papers
438, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Antoni Bosch-Domènech & José G. Montalvo & Rosemarie Nagel & Albert Satorra, 2002. "One, Two, (Three), Infinity, ...: Newspaper and Lab Beauty-Contest Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1687-1701, December.
- Antoni Bosch-Domenech & Jose Garcia-Montalvo & Rosemarie Nagel & Albert Satorra, 2002. "One, two, (three), infinity: Newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments," Artefactual Field Experiments 00011, The Field Experiments Website.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:52:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
- Duffy, John & Nagel, Rosemarie, 1997. "On the Robustness of Behaviour in Experimental "Beauty Contest" Games," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1684-1700, November.
- Anna Carabelli, 2002. "Speculation and reasonableness: a non-Bayesian theory of rationality," Chapters, in: Post Keynesian Econometrics, Microeconomics and the Theory of the Firm, chapter 10 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Novarese, Marco & Lanteri, Alessandro, 2007. "Individual learning: theory formation, and feedback in a complex task," MPRA Paper 3049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
- Guth, Werner & Kocher, Martin & Sutter, Matthias, 2002.
"Experimental 'beauty contests' with homogeneous and heterogeneous players and with interior and boundary equilibria,"
Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 219-228, January.
- Güth, Werner & Kocher, Martin G. & Sutter, Matthias, 2002. "Experimental 'beauty contests' with homogeneous and heterogeneous players and with interior and boundary equilibria," Munich Reprints in Economics 18165, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Güth, Werner & Kocher, Martin & Sutter, Matthias, 2001. "Experimental 'beauty contests' with homogeneous and heterogeneous players and with interior and boundary equilibria," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,45, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Nagel, Rosemarie, 1995. "Unraveling in Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1313-1326, December.
- S. Berninghaus & W. Güth, 2007. "Experimental Economics," Chapters, in: Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, chapter 66 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Alessandro Lanteri & Marco Novarese, 2008. "The beauty of the contest: A novel approach to experimental beauty contests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(52), pages 1-10.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:20-2008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simone Pellegrino)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.