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Assessing the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations

  • Till Strohsal
  • Lars Winkelmann
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    This paper proposes an ESTAR modeling framework to analyze the anchoring of inflation expectations. Anchoring criteria are empirical estimates of a market implied inflation target as well as the strength of the anchor that holds expectations at the target. Results from daily financial market expectations in the United States, European Monetary Union, United Kingdom and Sweden indicate: First, shorter-term expectations are better anchored than longer-term expectations. Second, expectations are best anchored in the EU, followed by US, Sweden and UK. Third, during the crisis market implied targets mostly decline while the strength of the anchor remains mostly unaffected.

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    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2012-022.pdf
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    Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2012-022.

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    Length: 27 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-022
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    Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
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    1. Beechey, Meredith J & Johannsen, Benjamin K & Levin, Andrew, 2007. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area than in the United States?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2008. "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-59, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    3. van der Cruijsen, Carin & Demertzis, Maria, 2007. "The impact of central bank transparency on inflation expectations," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-66, March.
    4. Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Modeling the Dynamics of Inflation Compensation," Working Paper Series 15_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
    5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    6. Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Foreward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994," Papers 579, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    7. Bob Nobay & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics in the U.S.: Global but Not Local Mean Reversion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 135-150, 02.
    8. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
    9. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Modeling the behaviour of inflation deviations from the target," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 90-95, January.
    10. Meredith J. Beechey & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. van Dijk, Dick & Hans Franses, Philip & Peter Boswijk, H., 2007. "Absorption of shocks in nonlinear autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4206-4226, May.
    12. Kruse, Robinson & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2012. "Long memory and changing persistence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 268-272.
    13. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    14. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    15. N. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "Central Bank Transparency: Where, Why, and with What Effects?," NBER Working Papers 13003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
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