The Influence of the Business Cycle on Mortality
We analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality using Bayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality of mortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changes for all individual age classes. We employ a recently developed model to set up structural VARs of a latent mortality variable and of unemployment and GDP growth as main business cycle indicators. We find that young adults noticeably differ from the rest of the population. They exhibit increased mortality in a recession, whereas most of the other age classes between childhood and old age react with lower mortality to increased unemployment or decreased GDP growth. In order to avoid that opposed effects may cancel each other, our findings suggest to differentiate closely between particular age classes, especially in the age range of young adults. The results for the U.S. in the period 1956–2004 are confirmed by an international comparison with France and Japan. Long- term changes in the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and mortality are investigated with data since 1933.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin|
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Neumayer, Eric, 2004. "Recessions lower (some) mortality rates:: evidence from Germany," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 1037-1047, March.
- Angus Deaton, 2003.
"Health, Inequality, and Economic Development,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 113-158, March.
- Angus Deaton, 2002. "Health, inequality, and economic development," Working Papers 209, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
- Angus Deaton, 2002. "Health, inequality, and economic development," Working Papers 270, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Health and Wellbeing..
- Deaton, A., 2001. "Health, Inequality, and Economic Development," Papers 200, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Angus Deaton, 2001. "Health, Inequality, and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 8318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gerard J. van den Berg & Gabriele Doblhammer-Reiter & Kaare Christensen, 2008.
"Exogenous determinants of early-life conditions, and mortality later in life,"
MPIDR Working Papers
WP-2008-016, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Doblhammer, Gabriele & Christensen, Kaare, 2009. "Exogenous determinants of early-life conditions, and mortality later in life," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(9), pages 1591-1598, May.
- Ruhm, Christopher J. & Black, William E., 2002.
"Does drinking really decrease in bad times?,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 659-678, July.
- Wolfgang Reichmuth & Samad Sarferaz, 2008. "Modeling and Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality: A Bayesian Approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-052a, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Higgs, Robert, 1979. "Cycles and trends of mortality in 18 large American cities, 1871-1900," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 381-408, October.
- Douglas Almond & Lena Edlund & Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang, 2007. "Long-Term Effects Of The 1959-1961 China Famine: Mainland China and Hong Kong," NBER Working Papers 13384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baird, Sarah & Friedman, Jed & Schady, Norbert, 2007. "Infant mortality over the business cycle in the developing world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4346, The World Bank.
- Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Rembrandt D. Scholz, 2007.
"Differential mortality by lifetime earnings in Germany,"
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(4), pages 83-108, August.
- Christopher J. Ruhm, 1996.
"Are Recessions Good For Your Health?,"
NBER Working Papers
5570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ruhm, Christopher J., 2005.
"Healthy living in hard times,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 341-363, March.
- Ruhm, Christopher J., 2003. "Good times make you sick," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 637-658, July.
- Stephen E. Snyder & William N. Evans, 2006. "The Effect of Income on Mortality: Evidence from the Social Security Notch," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 482-495, August.
- Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2006.
"Deaths rise in good economic times: Evidence from the OECD,"
Economics & Human Biology,
Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 298-316, December.
- Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2002. "Deaths Rise in Good Economic Times: Evidence From the OECD," IZA Discussion Papers 654, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ulf-G. Gerdtham & Christopher J. Ruhm, 2002. "Deaths Rise in Good Economic Times: Evidence From the OECD," NBER Working Papers 9357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tapia Granados, José A. & Ionides, Edward L., 2008. "The reversal of the relation between economic growth and health progress: Sweden in the 19th and 20th centuries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 544-563, May.
- Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom & France Portrait, 2006. "Economic Conditions Early in Life and Individual Mortality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 290-302, March.
- Katja Hanewald, 2008. "Beyond the business cycle - factors driving aggregate mortality rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-031, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Sargent, R P & Shepard, R M & Glantz, Stanton A. Ph.D., 2004. "Reduced incidence of admissions for myocardial infarction associated with public smoking ban: before and after study," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt3276d6r6, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.