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International Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A New Open Economy Macroeconomics Interpretation

Author

Listed:
  • Soyoung Kim

    (Korea University)

  • Jaewoo Lee

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper investigates international macroeconomic fluctuations in light of NOEM (New Open Economy Macroeconomics) models. A model with four major economic disturbances (technology shocks, labor supply shocks, preference shocks, and nominal shocks) is analytically solved to derive theoretical long-run identification restrictions. These restrictions are used to estimate a structural VAR model for the three largest economies (the U.S., the Euro Area, and Japan) over the post Bretton Woods period. The main findings are: (1) the signs of the dynamic responses are mostly consistent with theoretical predictions; (2) supply-side shocks (technology and labor supply shocks) explain most of the fluctuations in cross-country output deviations; (3) preference shocks are the dominant source of real exchange rate fluctuations; and (4) productivity shocks played a prominent role in the recent global imbalances (large U.S. external deficit), while the current account has usually been influenced by all four shocks, with no single shock dominant in all periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Soyoung Kim & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "International Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A New Open Economy Macroeconomics Interpretation," Working Papers 232008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:232008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pagan, A. & Pesaran, M.H., 2007. "On Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks and Exogenous Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0662, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Jaewoo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2015. "The valuation channel of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 86-114.
    3. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    4. Lee, Jaewoo & Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "Current account and real exchange rate dynamics in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 257-274, March.
    5. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "Productivity, External Balance, and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism among G7 Countries," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 117-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ghironi, Fabio, 2006. "Macroeconomic interdependence under incomplete markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 428-450, December.
    8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 597-638, October.
    9. Bergin, Paul R., 2006. "How well can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics explain the exchange rate and current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 675-701, August.
    10. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "The Economic Future of Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    11. Hamid Faruqee & Jaewoo Lee, 2009. "Global Dispersion of Current Accounts: Is the Universe Expanding?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 574-595, August.
    12. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    13. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-34, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jaewoo, 2015. "Imbalances over the Pacific," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 173-185.
    2. Rafiq, Sohrab, 2013. "Sources of time-varying trade balance and real exchange rate dynamics in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 117-141.
    3. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
    4. Kim, Soyoung, 2015. "Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 436-447.
    5. Soyoung Kim, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models for macroeconomic policy analysis," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 23, pages 555-572 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Open Economy Macroeconomics; Structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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