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Price discovery in government bond markets

Author

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  • Valseth, Siri

    () (University of Stavanger)

Abstract

Price discovery in government bond markets is explored using Norwegian data including trades from both tiers of the market and dealer identities. The results show that while aggregate interdealer order flow explains one-fourth of daily yield changes, aggregate customer order flow has little explanatory power. Dealers are heterogeneously informed and appear to have different sources of information. While some dealers mainly rely on their customer trades, others appear to rely on skill in acquiring and interpreting other relevant information, suggesting that dealers play an independent role in the price discovery process.
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Suggested Citation

  • Valseth, Siri, 2011. "Price discovery in government bond markets," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2011/3, University of Stavanger.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:stavef:2011_003
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    File URL: http://www1.uis.no/ansatt/odegaard/uis_wps_econ_fin/uis_wps_2011_3_valseth.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813148543_0011 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    4. Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
    5. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 11, pages 457-475 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
    7. Sapp, Stephen G., 2002. "Price Leadership in the Spot Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 425-448, September.
    8. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    9. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, June.
    10. Menkveld, Albert J. & Sarkar, Asani & Wel, Michel van der, 2012. "Customer Order Flow, Intermediaries, and Discovery of the Equilibrium Risk-Free Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(04), pages 821-849, August.
    11. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carol Osler & Geir Bjonnes & Neophytos Kathitziotis, 2016. "Bid-Ask Spreads in OTC Markets," Working Papers 102, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
    2. repec:eee:pacfin:v:48:y:2018:i:c:p:84-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Alessandro Girardi & Claudio Impenna, 2013. "Price discovery in the Italian sovereign bonds market: the role of order flow," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 906, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Valseth, Siri, 2016. "Informed trading in Hybrid Bond Markets," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016/13, University of Stavanger.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price Discovery; Microstructure; Government Bonds; Norway;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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