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Price discovery in government bond markets

  • Valseth, Siri

Price discovery in government bond markets is explored using Norwegian data including trades from both tiers of the market and dealer identities. The results show that while aggregate interdealer order flow explains one-fourth of daily yield changes, aggregate customer order flow has little explanatory power. Dealers are heterogeneously informed and appear to have different sources of information. While some dealers mainly rely on their customer trades, others appear to rely on skill in acquiring and interpreting other relevant information, suggesting that dealers play an independent role in the price discovery process.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Markets.

Volume (Year): 16 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 127-151

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:16:y:2013:i:1:p:127-151
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar

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  1. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  2. Lawrence R. Glosten & Paul R. Milgrom, 1983. "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders," Discussion Papers 570, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  3. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, 06.
  5. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  6. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
  7. Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
  8. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  9. Menkveld, Albert J. & Sarkar, Asani & Wel, Michel van der, 2012. "Customer Order Flow, Intermediaries, and Discovery of the Equilibrium Risk-Free Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(04), pages 821-849, August.
  10. Sapp, Stephen G., 2002. "Price Leadership in the Spot Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 425-448, September.
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