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The Duration and Outcome of Unemployment Spells- The role of Economic Incentives

Author

Listed:
  • Røed, Knut

    () (The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)

  • Zhang, Tao

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

We investigate how transitions from unemployment are affected by economic incentives and spell duration. Based on unique Norwegian register data that exhibit the rarity of random-assignment-like variation in economic incentives, the causal parameters are identified without reliance on distributional assumptions or functional form restrictions. We find that the hazard rates are negatively affected by the replacement ratio, but that the size of these effects varies considerably among individuals. There is strong negative duration dependence in the employment hazard and positive duration dependence in the ‘discouragement’ hazard. The employment hazard rises substantially in the months just prior to benefit exhaustion.

Suggested Citation

  • Røed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2003. "The Duration and Outcome of Unemployment Spells- The role of Economic Incentives," Memorandum 06/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2002_006
    as

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    File URL: http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2002/Memo-06-2002.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    2. van den Berg, Gerard J, 1990. "Search Behaviour, Transitions to Nonparticipation and the Duration of Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 842-865, September.
    3. Brinch,C., 2000. "Identification of structural duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity with time-varying," Memorandum 20/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 417-434.
    5. Bo E. Honoré, 1993. "Identification Results for Duration Models with Multiple Spells," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 241-246.
    6. Katz, Lawrence F. & Meyer, Bruce D., 1990. "The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 45-72, February.
    7. Gerard J. van den Berg, 1990. "Nonstationarity in Job Search Theory," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 255-277.
    8. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.),Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    9. Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January.
    10. Hujer, Reinhard & Schneider, Hilmar, 1989. "The analysis of labor market mobility using panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 530-536, March.
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    13. Arulampalam, Wiji & Stewart, Mark B, 1995. "The Determinants of Individual Unemployment Durations in an Era of High Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 321-332, March.
    14. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Competing risks; unemployment duration; random assignment;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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