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Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods

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  • Bjerksund, Petter

    () (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Stensland, Gunnar

    () (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Vagstad, Frank

    () (Viz Risk Management)

Abstract

The existence of a financial gas market motivates the analysis of gas storage as a separate asset, using the market value context for utilization and valuation. In the recent literature, gas storage is typically analysed within a framework with a simple one-factor price dynamics that is solved to optimality. We follow a different approach, where the market is represented by a forward curve with daily granularity, the price uncertainty is represented by six factors, and where we impose a simple and intuitive storage strategy that follows from repeated maximization of the intrinsic value. Based on UK natural gas market price data, we obtain the gas storage value using our approach, and compare with results from one-factor models as well as with perfect foresight. We find that our approach captures much more of the true flexibility value than the one-factor models. Our results indicate that the appropriate framework for analyzing complex assets like gas storage is a rich representation of the price dynamics combined with a simple and intuitive decision rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Bjerksund, Petter & Stensland, Gunnar & Vagstad, Frank, 2008. "Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods," Discussion Papers 2008/20, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2008_020
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/163950
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
    2. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    3. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steffen, Bjarne & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "Optimal operation of pumped-hydro storage plants with continuous time-varying power prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 308-321.
    2. Secomandi, Nicola, 2016. "A tutorial on portfolio-based control algorithms for merchant energy trading operations," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13.
    3. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:20:y:2017:i:01:n:s0219024917500042 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Arvesen, Ø. & Medbø, V. & Fleten, S.-E. & Tomasgard, A. & Westgaard, S., 2013. "Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 155-164.
    5. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    6. Monica Giulietti, Luigi Grossi, and Michael Waterson, 2012. "A Rough Analysis: Valuing Gas Storage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    7. Patrick Henaff & Ismail Laachir & Francesco Russo, 2013. "Gas storage valuation and hedging. A quantification of the model risk," Papers 1312.3789, arXiv.org.
    8. Giulietti, Monica & Grossi, Luigi & Waterson, Michael, 2011. "A Rough Examination of the value of gas storage," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 967, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. Felix, Bastian Joachim & Weber, Christoph, 2012. "Gas storage valuation applying numerically constructed recombining trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 178-187.
    10. Misund, Bård & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "Supply and demand determinants of natural gas price volatility in the U.K.: A vector autoregression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 178-189.
    11. Bastian Felix, 2012. "Gas Storage Valuation: A Comparative Simulation Study," EWL Working Papers 1201, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Apr 2014.
    12. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2016. "Natural gas-fired power plants valuation and optimisation under Levy copulas and regime-switching," Papers 1607.01207, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    13. Steffen, Bjarne & Weber, Christoph, 2013. "Efficient storage capacity in power systems with thermal and renewable generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 556-567.
    14. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Bråthen, Espen & Nissen-Meyer, Sigurd-Erik, 2010. "Evaluation of static hedging strategies for hydropower producers in the Nordic market," MPRA Paper 27133, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy; uncertainty; flexibility; exercise strategy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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