Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods
In the literature, one approach is to analyse gas storage within a simple one-factor price dynamics framework that is solved to optimality. We follow an alternative approach, where the market is represented by a forward curve with daily granularity, the price uncertainty is represented by six factors, and where we impose a simple and intuitive storage strategy. Based on UK natural gas market price data, we obtain the gas storage value using our approach, and compare with results from a one-factor model as well as with perfect foresight. We find that our approach captures much more of the true flexibility value than the one-factor model.
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Volume (Year): Volume 32 (2011)
Issue (Month): Number 1 ()
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- Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
- Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
- Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
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