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Gas storage valuation in incomplete markets

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  • Löhndorf, Nils
  • Wozabal, David

Abstract

Natural gas storage valuation is an important problem in energy trading, yet most valuation approaches are based on heuristics or ignore that gas markets are incomplete. We propose an exact valuation model for incomplete gas markets based on multistage stochastic programming. Market incompleteness structurally changes the problem of storage valuation and asset backed trading and the resulting model requires analysis of a combined control problem of storage operation and futures trading that takes risk preferences into account. As the problem is subject to the curse of dimensionality, we reduce the stochastic process to a scenario lattice and solve the resulting problem using stochastic dual dynamic programming. We show that the intrinsic value of storage corresponds to the value under perfect risk aversion and that the rolling intrinsic value, which is popular among practitioners and has been found to be near-optimal when markets are complete, is an inconsistent price rule in incomplete markets. Our results inform managerial decisions on risk management and asset pricing for natural gas highlighting the importance of explicitly modeling risk preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Löhndorf, Nils & Wozabal, David, 2021. "Gas storage valuation in incomplete markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 318-330.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:288:y:2021:i:1:p:318-330
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.044
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    1. Shapiro, Alexander & Tekaya, Wajdi & da Costa, Joari Paulo & Soares, Murilo Pereira, 2013. "Risk neutral and risk averse Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 224(2), pages 375-391.
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    10. Löhndorf, Nils & Shapiro, Alexander, 2019. "Modeling time-dependent randomness in stochastic dual dynamic programming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(2), pages 650-661.
    11. Felix, Bastian Joachim & Weber, Christoph, 2012. "Gas storage valuation applying numerically constructed recombining trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 178-187.
    12. Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "Optimal Commodity Trading with a Capacitated Storage Asset," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 449-467, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joakim Dimoski & Stein-Erik Fleten & Nils Löhndorf & Sveinung Nersten, 2023. "Dynamic hedging for the real option management of hydropower production with exchange rate risks," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(2), pages 525-554, June.
    2. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2023. "A review of the operations literature on real options in energy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 469-487.

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