IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/decfin/v44y2021i2d10.1007_s10203-021-00363-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A deep learning model for gas storage optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Curin

    (Axpo Solutions AG)

  • Michael Kettler

    (Axpo Solutions AG)

  • Xi Kleisinger-Yu

    (ETH Zürich)

  • Vlatka Komaric

    (Axpo Solutions AG)

  • Thomas Krabichler

    (Eastern Switzerland University of Applied Sciences)

  • Josef Teichmann

    (ETH Zürich)

  • Hanna Wutte

    (ETH Zürich)

Abstract

To the best of our knowledge, the application of deep learning in the field of quantitative risk management is still a relatively recent phenomenon. In this article, we utilize techniques inspired by reinforcement learning in order to optimize the operation plans of underground natural gas storage facilities. We provide a theoretical framework and assess the performance of the proposed method numerically in comparison to a state-of-the-art least-squares Monte-Carlo approach. Due to the inherent intricacy originating from the high-dimensional forward market as well as the numerous constraints and frictions, the optimization exercise can hardly be tackled by means of traditional techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Curin & Michael Kettler & Xi Kleisinger-Yu & Vlatka Komaric & Thomas Krabichler & Josef Teichmann & Hanna Wutte, 2021. "A deep learning model for gas storage optimization," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1021-1037, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:decfin:v:44:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s10203-021-00363-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10203-021-00363-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10203-021-00363-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10203-021-00363-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thompson, Matt, 2016. "Natural gas storage valuation, optimization, market and credit risk management," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 26-44.
    2. Patrick Hénaff & Ismail Laachir & Francesco Russo, 2018. "Gas Storage Valuation and Hedging: A Quantification of Model Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Achref Bachouch & Côme Huré & Nicolas Langrené & Huyen Pham, 2020. "Deep neural networks algorithms for stochastic control problems on finite horizon: numerical applications," Post-Print hal-01949221, HAL.
    4. Patrick Jaillet & Ehud I. Ronn & Stathis Tompaidis, 2004. "Valuation of Commodity-Based Swing Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(7), pages 909-921, July.
    5. Petter Bjerksund & Gunnar Stensland & Frank Vagstad, 2011. "Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 203-228.
    6. Roberto Daluiso & Emanuele Nastasi & Andrea Pallavicini & Giulio Sartorelli, 2020. "Pricing commodity swing options," Papers 2001.08906, arXiv.org.
    7. Achref Bachouch & C^ome Hur'e & Nicolas Langren'e & Huyen Pham, 2018. "Deep neural networks algorithms for stochastic control problems on finite horizon: numerical applications," Papers 1812.05916, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    8. Christophe Barrera-Esteve & Florent Bergeret & Charles Dossal & Emmanuel Gobet & Asma Meziou & Rémi Munos & Damien Reboul-Salze, 2006. "Numerical Methods for the Pricing of Swing Options: A Stochastic Control Approach," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 517-540, December.
    9. Rene Carmona & Michael Ludkovski, 2010. "Valuation of energy storage: an optimal switching approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 359-374.
    10. Matt Thompson & Matt Davison & Henning Rasmussen, 2009. "Natural gas storage valuation and optimization: A real options application," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(3), pages 226-238, April.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11531 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vo Thanh, Hung & Zamanyad, Aiyoub & Safaei-Farouji, Majid & Ashraf, Umar & Hemeng, Zhang, 2022. "Application of hybrid artificial intelligent models to predict deliverability of underground natural gas storage sites," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 169-184.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Curin & Michael Kettler & Xi Kleisinger-Yu & Vlatka Komaric & Thomas Krabichler & Josef Teichmann & Hanna Wutte, 2021. "A deep learning model for gas storage optimization," Papers 2102.01980, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    2. Felix, Bastian Joachim & Weber, Christoph, 2012. "Gas storage valuation applying numerically constructed recombining trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 178-187.
    3. Nicola Secomandi & Guoming Lai & François Margot & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Duane J. Seppi, 2015. "Merchant Commodity Storage and Term-Structure Model Error," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 302-320, July.
    4. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    5. Guoming Lai & François Margot & Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "An Approximate Dynamic Programming Approach to Benchmark Practice-Based Heuristics for Natural Gas Storage Valuation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 564-582, June.
    6. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2016. "Natural gas-fired power plants valuation and optimisation under Levy copulas and regime-switching," Papers 1607.01207, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    7. Löhndorf, Nils & Wozabal, David, 2021. "Gas storage valuation in incomplete markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 318-330.
    8. Guoming Lai & Mulan X. Wang & Sunder Kekre & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Nicola Secomandi, 2011. "Valuation of Storage at a Liquefied Natural Gas Terminal," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 602-616, June.
    9. Nicola Secomandi, 2015. "Merchant Commodity Storage Practice Revisited," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1131-1143, October.
    10. Anna Maria Gambaro & Nicola Secomandi, 2021. "A Discussion of Non‐Gaussian Price Processes for Energy and Commodity Operations," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 47-67, January.
    11. R. Mark Reesor & T. James Marshall, 2020. "Forest of Stochastic Trees: A Method for Valuing Multiple Exercise Options," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-31, May.
    12. Selvaprabu Nadarajah & François Margot & Nicola Secomandi, 2015. "Relaxations of Approximate Linear Programs for the Real Option Management of Commodity Storage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 3054-3076, December.
    13. Dong, Wenfeng & Kang, Boda, 2019. "Analysis of a multiple year gas sales agreement with make-up, carry-forward and indexation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 76-96.
    14. Yangfang (Helen) Zhou & Alan Scheller‐Wolf & Nicola Secomandi & Stephen Smith, 2019. "Managing Wind‐Based Electricity Generation in the Presence of Storage and Transmission Capacity," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 28(4), pages 970-989, April.
    15. Hanfeld, Marc & Schlüter, Stephan, 2016. "Operating a swing option on today's gas markets: How least squares Monte Carlo works and why it is beneficial," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 10/2016, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    16. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2017. "Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants Valuation And Optimization Under Lévy Copulas And Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-38, February.
    17. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
    18. Christian Bender & Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2013. "A First-Order BSPDE for Swing Option Pricing," Papers 1305.3988, arXiv.org.
    19. Bastian Felix, 2012. "Gas Storage Valuation: A Comparative Simulation Study," EWL Working Papers 1201, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Apr 2014.
    20. Yangfang (Helen) Zhou & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Nicola Secomandi & Stephen Smith, 2016. "Electricity Trading and Negative Prices: Storage vs. Disposal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 880-898, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:decfin:v:44:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s10203-021-00363-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.