IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocoma/v2y2016i1p26-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Natural gas storage valuation, optimization, market and credit risk management

Author

Listed:
  • Thompson, Matt

Abstract

This paper presents a method for optimizing, pricing and hedging gas storage facilities and leasing contracts in the presence of counter-party credit risk (CCR). A reduced factor, time-independent and Markovian representation of the forward curve is developed that explains 99% of the curve dynamics and incorporates implied volatility seasonality. A system of partial differential equations for valuation and optimization is derived. The resulting PDEs are solved using a specialized implementation of the radial basis function (RBF) technique. The combination of the time-independent, Markovian, framework facilitates the optimization of high-deliverability storage contracts. In addition, as a by-product of the RBF-PDE solution process, a series of analytic RBF expansions for the value of the gas storage contract is produced. These expansions can be differentiated analytically at virtually no cost to obtain hedging statistics. These expansions can also facilitate the millions of individual contract valuations required to price and hedge CCR.

Suggested Citation

  • Thompson, Matt, 2016. "Natural gas storage valuation, optimization, market and credit risk management," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 26-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:2:y:2016:i:1:p:26-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2016.07.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851315300167
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcomm.2016.07.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Swindle,Glen, 2014. "Valuation and Risk Management in Energy Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107036840.
    2. Mihaela Manoliu, 2004. "Storage Options Valuation Using Multilevel Trees And Calendar Spreads," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(04), pages 425-464.
    3. Guoming Lai & Mulan X. Wang & Sunder Kekre & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Nicola Secomandi, 2011. "Valuation of Storage at a Liquefied Natural Gas Terminal," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 602-616, June.
    4. Andrew Carverhill, 1994. "When Is The Short Rate Markovian?," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 305-312, October.
    5. Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "Optimal Commodity Trading with a Capacitated Storage Asset," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 449-467, March.
    6. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    7. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    8. Matt Thompson, 2013. "Optimal Economic Dispatch and Risk Management of Thermal Power Plants in Deregulated Markets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 791-809, August.
    9. Rene Carmona & Michael Ludkovski, 2010. "Valuation of energy storage: an optimal switching approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 359-374.
    10. Guoming Lai & François Margot & Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "An Approximate Dynamic Programming Approach to Benchmark Practice-Based Heuristics for Natural Gas Storage Valuation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 564-582, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anna Maria Gambaro & Nicola Secomandi, 2021. "A Discussion of Non‐Gaussian Price Processes for Energy and Commodity Operations," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 47-67, January.
    2. Michael Ludkovski & Aditya Maheshwari, 2018. "Simulation Methods for Stochastic Storage Problems: A Statistical Learning Perspective," Papers 1803.11309, arXiv.org.
    3. Stephan Schlüter & Sejung Jung & Andreas von Döllen & Wonhee Lee, 2022. "An Alternative to Index-Based Gas Sourcing Using Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-11, June.
    4. Alessio Trivella & Selvaprabu Nadarajah & Stein-Erik Fleten & Denis Mazieres & David Pisinger, 2021. "Managing Shutdown Decisions in Merchant Commodity and Energy Production: A Social Commerce Perspective," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 311-330, March.
    5. Nicolas Curin & Michael Kettler & Xi Kleisinger-Yu & Vlatka Komaric & Thomas Krabichler & Josef Teichmann & Hanna Wutte, 2021. "A deep learning model for gas storage optimization," Papers 2102.01980, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    6. Nasiri, Nima & Zeynali, Saeed & Ravadanegh, Sajad Najafi & Marzband, Mousa, 2021. "A hybrid robust-stochastic approach for strategic scheduling of a multi-energy system as a price-maker player in day-ahead wholesale market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    7. Secomandi, Nicola, 2016. "A tutorial on portfolio-based control algorithms for merchant energy trading operations," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13.
    8. Nicolas Curin & Michael Kettler & Xi Kleisinger-Yu & Vlatka Komaric & Thomas Krabichler & Josef Teichmann & Hanna Wutte, 2021. "A deep learning model for gas storage optimization," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1021-1037, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    2. Anna Maria Gambaro & Nicola Secomandi, 2021. "A Discussion of Non‐Gaussian Price Processes for Energy and Commodity Operations," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 47-67, January.
    3. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Margot, François & Secomandi, Nicola, 2017. "Comparison of least squares Monte Carlo methods with applications to energy real options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 196-204.
    4. Nicola Secomandi, 2015. "Merchant Commodity Storage Practice Revisited," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1131-1143, October.
    5. Bastian Felix, 2012. "Gas Storage Valuation: A Comparative Simulation Study," EWL Working Papers 1201, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Apr 2014.
    6. Owen Q. Wu & Derek D. Wang & Zhenwei Qin, 2012. "Seasonal Energy Storage Operations with Limited Flexibility: The Price-Adjusted Rolling Intrinsic Policy," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 455-471, July.
    7. Selvaprabu Nadarajah & François Margot & Nicola Secomandi, 2015. "Relaxations of Approximate Linear Programs for the Real Option Management of Commodity Storage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 3054-3076, December.
    8. Lin Zhao & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2015. "Asset Pricing in Incomplete Markets: Valuing Gas Storage Capacity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-104/VI/DSF95, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Felix, Bastian Joachim & Weber, Christoph, 2012. "Gas storage valuation applying numerically constructed recombining trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 178-187.
    10. Trotter, Ian M. & Gomes, Marília Fernandes Maciel & Braga, Marcelo José & Brochmann, Bjørn & Lie, Ole Nikolai, 2016. "Optimal LNG (liquefied natural gas) regasification scheduling for import terminals with storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 80-88.
    11. Secomandi, Nicola, 2016. "A tutorial on portfolio-based control algorithms for merchant energy trading operations," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13.
    12. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2023. "A review of the operations literature on real options in energy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 469-487.
    13. Nicola Secomandi & Guoming Lai & François Margot & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Duane J. Seppi, 2015. "Merchant Commodity Storage and Term-Structure Model Error," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 302-320, July.
    14. Alessio Trivella & Selvaprabu Nadarajah & Stein-Erik Fleten & Denis Mazieres & David Pisinger, 2021. "Managing Shutdown Decisions in Merchant Commodity and Energy Production: A Social Commerce Perspective," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 311-330, March.
    15. Vijay V. Desai & Vivek F. Farias & Ciamac C. Moallemi, 2012. "Pathwise Optimization for Optimal Stopping Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(12), pages 2292-2308, December.
    16. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2003. "Fixed-income pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1207-1246, Elsevier.
    17. Hanfeld, Marc & Schlüter, Stephan, 2016. "Operating a swing option on today's gas markets: How least squares Monte Carlo works and why it is beneficial," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 10/2016, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    18. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2017. "Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants Valuation And Optimization Under Lévy Copulas And Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-38, February.
    19. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2016. "Natural gas-fired power plants valuation and optimisation under Levy copulas and regime-switching," Papers 1607.01207, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    20. Löhndorf, Nils & Wozabal, David, 2021. "Gas storage valuation in incomplete markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 318-330.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:2:y:2016:i:1:p:26-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcomm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.