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The Euro Effect on Bystanders

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This paper investigates trade effects of the euro focusing on the impact on bystanders. A common currency is expected to lower both variable and fixed trade costs, inducing increased trade flows between currency-union members on both intensive and extensive margins of trade. While this trade-creating effect has gained attention in recent work using firm-level data, few studies have looked on the possible trade-diverting effect for firms remaining outside. In this paper, we use data for Swedish manufacturing firms covering the 1997-2006 period in order to assess the potential trade-diverting effects of the euro on Swedish exports. We consider variations in the impact of the euro taking both firm, industry and export-market characteristics into account. Our results suggest that there are some trade-diverting effects on the intensive margin but that these negative effects of the euro on trade flows are asymmetric and only valid for core markets within the Eurozone.

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  • Gullstrand , Joakim & Olofsdotter, Karin, 2014. "The Euro Effect on Bystanders," Working Papers 2014:33, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2014_033
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    1. Bastos, Paulo & Silva, Joana, 2012. "Networks, firms, and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 352-364.

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    Keywords

    euro; trade diversion; exports; heterogeneous firms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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