The Impact of Estimation Error on Portfolio Selection for Investors with Constant Relative Risk Aversion
This paper examines the impact of estimation error in a simple single-period portfolio choice problem when the investor has power utility and asset returns are jointly lognormally distributed. These assumptions imply that such an investor selects portfolios using a modified mean-variance framework where the parameters that he has to estimate are the mean vector of log returns and the covariance matrix of log returns. Following Chopra and Ziemba (1993), I simulate estimation error in what are assumed to be the true mean vector and the true covariance matrix and the impact of estimation error is measured in terms of percentage cash equivalence loss for the investor. To obtain estimation error sizes that are similar to the estimation error sizes in actual estimates, I use a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods. The empirical results differ significantly from Chopra and Ziemba (1993), suggesting that the effect of estimation error may have been overestimated in the past. Furthermore, the results tend to question the traditional viewpoint that estimating the covariance matrix correctly is strictly less important than estimating the mean vector correctly.
|Date of creation:||10 Nov 2003|
|Date of revision:||29 Apr 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2001.
"Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portofolio selection,"
Economics Working Papers
586, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 603-621, December.
- R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010.
"The equity premium: a puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1401, David K. Levine.
- Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1991. "On the Sensitivity of Mean-Variance-Efficient Portfolios to Changes in Asset Means: Some Analytical and Computational Results," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 315-42.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003.
"Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1684, 08.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2002. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," NBER Working Papers 8922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ohlson, J. A. & Ziemba, W. T., 1976. "Portfolio Selection in a Lognormal Market When the Investor Has a Power Utility Function," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 57-71, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2003_017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Edgerton)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.