The Role of Expectations: An Application to Internal Migration
This paper examines the impact of unemployment on migration. In a theoretical model, we show that unemployment, per se, does not affect migration. Rather, migration only occurs when unemployment shocks force residents to update their expectations of the area's unemployment rate. Once these expectations change, migration reallocates labor to bring the economy back to equilibrium. To test this theory, we devise an empirical strategy using state level data in the U.S. from 2000 to 2010, we find strong empirical evidence that unemployment shocks outside of expectations have a far greater impact on migration than unemployment shocks that are within expectations.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Eastern Economic Journal, forthcoming.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: (508)793-3362|
Fax: (508) 793-3708
Web page: http://www.holycross.edu/departments/economics/website/
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- Greenwood, Michael J, 1975. "Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 397-433, June.
- Paul S. Davies & Michael J. Greenwood & Haizheng Li, 2001. "A Conditional Logit Approach to U.S. State-to-State Migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 337-360.
- Abigail Wozniak, 2010. "Are College Graduates More Responsive to Distant Labor Market Opportunities?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(4), pages 944-970.
- Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2007.
"Labor reallocation over the business cycle: new evidence from internal migration,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2007-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697 - 739.
- Saks, Raven E. & Wozniak, Abigail, 2007. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 2766, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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