IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/easeco/v41y2015i3p443-458.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship between Net Migration and Unemployment: The Role of Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Baumann

    (Department of Economics and Accounting, College of the Holy Cross, Worcester, MA 01609.)

  • Justin Svec

    (Department of Economics and Accounting, College of the Holy Cross, Worcester, MA 01609.)

  • Francis Sanzari

    (Department of Economics and Accounting, College of the Holy Cross, Worcester, MA 01609.)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of unemployment on migration. In a theoretical model, we show that unemployment, per se, does not affect migration. Rather, migration only occurs when unemployment shocks force residents to update their expectations of the area’s unemployment rate. Once these expectations change, migration reallocates labor to bring the economy back to equilibrium. Testing this theory, we devise an empirical strategy using state-level data in the US from 2000 to 2010. We estimate that the impact of unemployment shocks outside of expectations is over 25 times greater than the impact of unemployment shocks that are within expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Baumann & Justin Svec & Francis Sanzari, 2015. "The Relationship between Net Migration and Unemployment: The Role of Expectations," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 443-458, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:easeco:v:41:y:2015:i:3:p:443-458
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/eej/journal/v41/n3/pdf/eej201444a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/eej/journal/v41/n3/full/eej201444a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697-739.
    2. Abigail Wozniak, 2010. "Are College Graduates More Responsive to Distant Labor Market Opportunities?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(4), pages 944-970.
    3. Paul S. Davies & Michael J. Greenwood & Haizheng Li, 2001. "A Conditional Logit Approach to U.S. State‐to‐State Migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 337-360, May.
    4. Greenwood, Michael J, 1975. "Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 397-433, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huaxin Wang-Lu & Octasiano Miguel Valerio Mendoza, 2022. "Job Prospects and Labour Mobility in China," Papers 2207.08282, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ryan M. Gallagher & Joseph Persky, 2020. "Heterogeneity of birth‐state effects on internal migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 517-537, June.
    2. Sasser, Alicia C., 2010. "Voting with their feet: Relative economic conditions and state migration patterns," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2-3), pages 122-135, May.
    3. Andrew Foote & Michel Grosz & Ann Stevens, 2019. "Locate Your Nearest Exit: Mass Layoffs and Local Labor Market Response," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(1), pages 101-126, January.
    4. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Lesli S. Ott & Michael T. Owyang & Denise Whalen, 2011. "Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the survey of income and program participation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 169-186.
    5. Petri Böckerman & Mika Haapanen, 2013. "The effect of polytechnic reform on migration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 593-617, April.
    6. Ofer Malamud & Abigail Wozniak, 2012. "The Impact of College on Migration: Evidence from the Vietnam Generation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(4), pages 913-950.
    7. Benjamin Wirth, 2013. "Ranking German regions using interregional migration - What does internal migration tells us about regional well-being?," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1254, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697-739.
    9. John Gardner & Joshua R. Hendrickson, 2018. "If I Leave Here Tomorrow: An Option View of Migration When Labor Market Quality Declines," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(3), pages 786-814, January.
    10. Caliendo, Marco & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Hennecke, Juliane & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2019. "Locus of control and internal migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Koşar, Gizem & Ransom, Tyler & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2022. "Understanding migration aversion using elicited counterfactual choice probabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 123-147.
    12. John V. Winters, 2017. "Do earnings by college major affect graduate migration?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(3), pages 629-649, November.
    13. Caliendo, Marco & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Hennecke, Juliane & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2019. "Locus of control and internal migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Richard J. Cebula, 2009. "Migration and the Tiebout‐Tullock Hypothesis Revisited," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 541-551, April.
    15. repec:mpr:mprres:6984 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Amior, Michael, 2015. "Why are higher skilled workers more mobile geographically?: the role of the job surplus," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61279, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Christian Bayer & Falko Juessen, 2012. "On the Dynamics of Interstate Migration: Migration Costs and Self-Selection," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 377-401, July.
    18. Ning Jia & Raven Molloy & Christopher Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2023. "The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 144-180, March.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6g9o9cr3pl8c1p3gnsu388c9bj is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Brian Cushing & Jacques Poot, 2004. "Crossing boundaries and borders: Regional science advances in migration modelling," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Raymond J. G. M. Florax & David A. Plane (ed.), Fifty Years of Regional Science, pages 317-338, Springer.
    21. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Dennett, Julia, 2013. "Are American homeowners locked into their houses? The impact of housing market conditions on state-to-state migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 322-337.
    22. Monras, Joan, 2015. "Economic Shocks and Internal Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 8840, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:easeco:v:41:y:2015:i:3:p:443-458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.