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Réforme "Obama" de la politique d'immigration et pronostics des théories économiques : les influences de la majorité politique et de la conjoncture économique

  • Simon Guidecoq

    ()

    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

  • Michel Rocca

    ()

    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

Registered author(s):

    Les préférences de la population américaine pour une restriction de l'immigration se sont accrues avec la crise économique que traverse ce pays depuis 2008. La récente victoire électorale des Républicains pourrait favoriser leur traduction politique. Cette contribution se propose d'évaluer la probabilité de cette éventualité à partir d'une revue de littérature des théories économiques de la politique d'immigration. Elle démontre l'existence d'un "puzzle" entre d'une part ; les prédictions théoriques en faveur d'un impact de la conjoncture économique sur les préférences collectives de politique d'immigration et d'autre part ; le rôle inexistant que joue empiriquement cette variable explicative. Ce puzzle suggère que d'autres variables (institutionnelles et politiques) priment dans le processus de formation de la politique d'immigration américaine et expliquent la persistance de son ouverture. La victoire Républicaine aux élections de novembre 2010 ne permet donc pas de conclure en faveur de changements significatifs de politique d'immigration aux États-Unis.

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    Date of creation: 09 Dec 2010
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    Publication status: Published - Presented, Premier congrès annuel de l'AFEP "Crise de l'économie, crise de la science économique ?", Sciences Po Lille, 2010, Lille, France
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00560088
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00560088/en/
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    1. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2008. "From Individual Attitudes towards Migrants to Migration Policy Outcomes. Theory and Evidence," Development Working Papers 251, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
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