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Réforme "Obama" de la politique d'immigration et pronostics des théories économiques : les influences de la majorité politique et de la conjoncture économique

Author

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  • Simon Guidecoq

    () (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Michel Rocca

    () (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Les préférences de la population américaine pour une restriction de l'immigration se sont accrues avec la crise économique que traverse ce pays depuis 2008. La récente victoire électorale des Républicains pourrait favoriser leur traduction politique. Cette contribution se propose d'évaluer la probabilité de cette éventualité à partir d'une revue de littérature des théories économiques de la politique d'immigration. Elle démontre l'existence d'un "puzzle" entre d'une part ; les prédictions théoriques en faveur d'un impact de la conjoncture économique sur les préférences collectives de politique d'immigration et d'autre part ; le rôle inexistant que joue empiriquement cette variable explicative. Ce puzzle suggère que d'autres variables (institutionnelles et politiques) priment dans le processus de formation de la politique d'immigration américaine et expliquent la persistance de son ouverture. La victoire Républicaine aux élections de novembre 2010 ne permet donc pas de conclure en faveur de changements significatifs de politique d'immigration aux États-Unis.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Guidecoq & Michel Rocca, 2010. "Réforme "Obama" de la politique d'immigration et pronostics des théories économiques : les influences de la majorité politique et de la conjoncture économique," Post-Print halshs-00560088, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00560088
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00560088
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    References listed on IDEAS

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