L'impact de la crise financière internationale sur les transferts des migrants : le cas des travailleurs tadjiks
Recently, migrants' remittances have become more and more important for many developing countries. Tajikistan, a landlocked country in Central Asia is no exception. Indeed, remittances sent by Tajik migrants in Russia reached more than 45% of Tajikistan's GDP in 2008 (World Bank, 2009). However, these transfers show a significant decline since the last quarter of 2008. The aim of this paper is to show that this decline is a consequence of the global financial crisis that began in the United States in 2007. The study of the determinants of Tajik transfers supports this thesis by highlighting the role of the Russian economic activity. Remittances seem to depend heavily on changes in Russian production and its rate of unemployment. However, the current crisis affecting these variables, indirectly impacts the Tajik economy through remittances. The hypothesis of countercyclicality of remittances should be rejected here, since remittances seem to be determined more by host country's variables than the origin country's ones. This result is explained by two main factors: Tajik migration flows are nearly unidirectional, thus, Tajikistan is highly dependant on its unique destination country; and the prevalence of altruistic motive. The global financial crisis seems to affect Tajikistan indirectly through the recession in Russia.
|Date of creation:||03 Jun 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in XXVIe journées du développement de l'Association Tiers-Mondes "Crises et soutenabilité du développement", Bureau d'économie théorique et appliquée, Université de Strasbourg et Université Nancy 2, Association Tiers-Monde, Préludes, Jun 2010, Strasbourg, France|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00504218|
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- Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008.
"Are remittances manna from heaven? A look at the business cycle properties of remittances,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 290-303, December.
- Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2009. "Are Remittances Manna From Heaven? A Look at the Business Cycle Properties of Remittances," Working Papers 0905, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
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