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Weather Effects in Energy Seasonal Adjustment: An Application to France Energy Consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Marie Bruguet

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Arthur Thomas

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Ronan Le Saout

    (ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique)

Abstract

This paper addresses the challenge of adjusting energy consumption data for weather variations by introducing a novel General Weather Indicator (GWI). The GWI combines multiple weather variables, including temperature, wind, sunlight, rain, and cloudiness, using a novel econometric approach that applies K-means for threshold identification and LASSO for variable selection. Through an empirical analysis of sectoral electricity and natural gas consumption in France, we demonstrate that the GWI outperforms the standard HDD approach by addressing three main concerns: the lack of statistical criteria for defining the base temperature, the reliance solely on temperature as the weather variable, and the assumption of a constant base temperature over time and space. Based on these results, we propose an analysis of the sectoral functional form and an estimation of weather elasticities for energy demand in France at both the monthly and daily levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Bruguet & Arthur Thomas & Ronan Le Saout, 2025. "Weather Effects in Energy Seasonal Adjustment: An Application to France Energy Consumption," Post-Print hal-05288088, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05288088
    DOI: 10.1177/01956574251330845
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05288088v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tantekin, Atakan, 2025. "Heating degree days (HDD) forecasting and heating degree days factor (HDDF) assessment in selected European countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).

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