IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01107956.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Liquidity and resolution of uncertainty in the European carbon futures market

Author

Listed:
  • Iordanis Angelos Kalaitzoglou

    (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School)

  • Boulis Maher Ibrahim

    () (HWU - Heriot-Watt University [Edinburgh])

Abstract

We investigate whether liquidity introduces or helps resolve uncertainty in Phase I and the first year of Phase II of the European carbon futures market. We propose a distinction between ‘absolute’ or overall liquidity and that which is ‘relative’ to a benchmark. For this purpose, we suggest volume-weighted duration as a natural measure of trading intensity as a proxy for liquidity, and we model it as a rescaled temporal point process. The new model is called Autoregressive Conditional Weighted Duration (ACWD) and is shown to outperform its discrete modelling counterparts. Liquidity is found to play a dual role, with higher relative liquidity introducing uncertainty and higher absolute liquidity accelerating uncertainty resolution, thus, enhancing market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Iordanis Angelos Kalaitzoglou & Boulis Maher Ibrahim, 2015. "Liquidity and resolution of uncertainty in the European carbon futures market," Post-Print hal-01107956, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01107956
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2014.11.006
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01107956
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01107956/document
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cohen, Kalman J, et al, 1980. " Implications of Microstructure Theory for Empirical Research on Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 249-257, May.
    2. Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1988. "Liquidity and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Ángel Pardo, 2008. "What You Should Know About Carbon Markets," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(3), pages 1-34, December.
    4. repec:wbk:wboper:13408 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Benston, George J. & Hagerman, Robert L., 1974. "Determinants of bid-asked spreads in the over-the-counter market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 353-364, December.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4222 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kalaitzoglou, Iordanis & Ibrahim, Boulis M., 2013. "Does order flow in the European Carbon Futures Market reveal information?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 604-635.
    8. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    9. repec:wbk:wboper:13412 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mizrach, Bruce & Otsubo, Yoichi, 2014. "The market microstructure of the European climate exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 107-116.
    11. Grossman, Sanford J & Miller, Merton H, 1988. " Liquidity and Market Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 617-637, July.
    12. Stoll, Hans R, 1978. "The Pricing of Security Dealer Services: An Empirical Study of NASDAQ Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1153-1172, September.
    13. Anthony Tay & Christopher Ting & Yiu Kuen Tse & Mitch Warachka, 2004. "Transaction-Data Analysis of Marked Durations and Their Implications for Market Microstructure," Working Papers 09-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    14. Tinic, Seha M. & West, Richard R., 1972. "Competition and the Pricing of Dealer Service in the Over-the-Counter Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(03), pages 1707-1727, June.
    15. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1980. "Dealership market : Market-making with inventory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 31-53, March.
    16. Seha M. Tinic, 1972. "The Economics of Liquidity Services," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 79-93.
    17. Karan Capoor & Philippe Ambrosi, "undated". "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2006 : Update, January 1-September 30, 2006," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13415, The World Bank.
    18. Madhavan, Ananth & Richardson, Matthew & Roomans, Mark, 1997. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1035-1064.
    19. Karan Capoor & Philippe Ambrosi, "undated". "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2006," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13409, The World Bank.
    20. Iordanis Kalaitzoglou & Boulis Ibrahim, 2013. "Trading Patterns in the European Carbon Market: The Role of Trading Intensity and OTC Transaction," Post-Print hal-00859268, HAL.
    21. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Muckley, Cal, 2014. "A microstructure analysis of the carbon finance market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 222-234.
    22. Ho, Thomas S Y & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. " The Dynamics of Dealer Markets under Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1053-1074, September.
    23. Garman, Mark B., 1976. "Market microstructure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-275, June.
    24. Ho, Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 1981. "Optimal dealer pricing under transactions and return uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-73, March.
    25. Cohen, Kalman J & Maier, Steven F & Schwartz, Robert A & Whitcomb, David K, 1981. "Transaction Costs, Order Placement Strategy, and Existence of the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 287-305, April.
    26. repec:wbk:wboper:13414 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Roll, Richard, 1984. " A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    28. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    29. Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
    30. Hawawini, Gabriel & Cohen, Kalman & Maier, Steven & Schwartz, Robert & Whitcomb, David, 1980. "Implications of microstructure theory for empirical research in stock price behavior," MPRA Paper 33976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Robert F. Engle, 2000. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-22, January.
    32. Albert S. Kyle & S. Viswanathan, 2008. "How to Define Illegal Price Manipulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 274-279, May.
    33. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    34. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December.
    35. David Easley & Maureen O'Hara, 2010. "Microstructure and Ambiguity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1817-1846, October.
    36. Iordanis Kalaitzoglou & Boulis Ibrahim, 2013. "Trading patterns in the European carbon market: The role of trading intensity and OTC transactions," Post-Print hal-00930898, HAL.
    37. Karan Capoor & Philippe Ambrosi, "undated". "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2006 : A Focus on Africa," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13413, The World Bank.
    38. Kalaitzoglou, Iordanis & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher, 2013. "Trading patterns in the European carbon market: The role of trading intensity and OTC transactions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 402-416.
    39. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
    40. Tonny Lybek & Abdourahmane Sarr, 2002. "Measuring Liquidity in Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/232, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Xin-gang & Jiang, Gui-wu & Nie, Dan & Chen, Hao, 2016. "How to improve the market efficiency of carbon trading: A perspective of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1229-1245.
    2. Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi, 2019. "Climate finance and the restructuring of the oil-gas-coal business model under carbon asset stranding constraints," Working Papers halshs-02106113, HAL.
    3. repec:eee:eneeco:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:249-260 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon market; Temporal marked point process; Marked duration; Instantaneous liquidity;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01107956. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.