IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The impact of external shocks on the eurozone: a structural VAR model

  • Jean-Baptiste Gossé


    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Cyriac Guillaumin


    (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)

This paper studies the impact of the main external shocks which the eurozone and member states have undergone since the start of the 2000s. Such shocks have been monetary (drop in global interest rates), financial (two stock market crises) and real (rising oil prices and an accumulation of global current account imbalances). We have used a structural VAR (SVAR) methodology, on the basis of which we have defined four structural shocks: external, supply, demand and monetary. The estimates obtained using SVAR models enabled us to determine the impact of these shocks on the eurozone and its member countries. The study highlights the diversity of reactions inside the eurozone. The repercussions of the oil and monetary shocks were fairly similar in all eurozone countries - excepting the Netherlands and the United Kingdom - but financial crises and global imbalances have had very different effects. External shocks explain one-fifth of the growth differential and current account balance variance and about one-third of fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate in Europe. The impact of the oil crisis was particularly large, but it pushed the euro down. Global imbalances explain a large proportion of exchange rate fluctuations but drove the euro up. Furthermore the response functions to financial and monetary crises are similar, except for current account functions. A financial crisis seems to result in the withdrawal of larger volumes of assets than a monetary crisis. The study thus highlights the diversity of the reactions in the eurozone and shows that external shocks do more to explain variations in the real effective exchange rate than in the growth differential or current account, while underlining the particularly important part played by global imbalances in European exchange rate fluctuations.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by HAL in its series CEPN Working Papers with number hal-00610024.

in new window

Date of creation: 25 Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-00610024
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server:
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Arghyrou, Michael G & Chortareas, Georgios, 2006. "Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S, 2005. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt4f63x50j, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Kiyotaka Sato & Zhaoyong Zhang & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Identifying Shocks in Regionally Integrated East Asian Economies with Structural VAR and Block Exogeneity," Working Papers in Economics 10/23, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  5. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, EconWPA.
  6. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  7. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  9. vladimir Borgy & Valérie Mignon, 2006. "Taux d’intérêt et marchés boursiers : une analyse empirique de l’intégration financière internationale," Working Papers 2006-25, CEPII research center.
  10. Menzie David Chinn & Jaewoo Lee, 2002. "Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7 Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/130, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Sebastian Sosa, 2008. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico; How Important are U.S. Factors?," IMF Working Papers 08/100, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Jondeau, E. & Sahuc, J-G., 2007. "Testing heterogeneity within the euro area," Working papers 181, Banque de France.
  13. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  14. Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2008. "A framework for assessing global imbalances," Occasional Paper Series 78, European Central Bank.
  15. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission," NBER Working Papers 11166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  17. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2007. "External shocks, U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2512-2520, November.
  18. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
  19. Massimo Giuliodori, 2004. "Nominal shocks and the current account: A structural VAR analysis of 14 OECD countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 569-591, December.
  20. André Cartapanis, 2009. "Le dollar incontesté ? Économie politique d’une monnaie internationale," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 135-150.
  21. Bracke, Thierry & Fidora, Michael, 2008. "Global liquidity glut or global savings glut? A structural VAR approach," Working Paper Series 0911, European Central Bank.
  22. Lee, J. & Chinn, M.D., 1998. "The Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Analysis of Major Currencies," Papers 97-98-17, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  23. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-00610024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.