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On the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and External Imbalances: East and Southeast Asia


  • Juan Carlos Cuestas

    () (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield)

  • Paulo José Regis

    (Department of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University)


The role the real exchange rate plays in determining current account balances has gathered momentum as East and Southeast Asian countries have seen increasingly positive current account balances. This paper analyses the evolution of current accounts in the region. A cointegrating relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the ratio of the current account balance to the GDP is tested, based on both linear and nonlinear models. The half-life of current account imbalances is relatively short, implying high capital mobility. Results point to the existence of a long-run relationship, and in most cases the causality runs from the exchange rate to the current account.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Paulo José Regis, 2013. "On the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and External Imbalances: East and Southeast Asia," Working Papers 2013015, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2013015

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
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    12. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2005. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," International Finance Discussion Papers 846, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang Chen & Juan Cuestas & Paulo Regis, 2014. "Corporate Tax Convergence in Asian and Pacific Economies," TUT Economic Research Series 17, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    2. Adnan Velic, 2017. "Current Account Imbalances, Real Exchange Rates, and Nominal Exchange Rate Variability," Trinity Economics Papers tep1417, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

    More about this item


    emerging markets; current account; half-life; East and Southeast Asia;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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