Multi-step ahead forecasting of vector time series
This paper develops the theory of multi-step ahead forecasting for vector time series that exhibit temporal nonstationarity and co-integration. We treat the case of a semi-infinite past, developing the forecast filters and the forecast error filters explicitly, and also provide formulas for forecasting from a finite-sample of data. This latter application can be accomplished by the use of large matrices, which remains practicable when the total sample size is moderate. Expressions for Mean Square Error of forecasts are also derived, and can be implemented readily. Three diverse data applications illustrate the flexibility and generality of these formulas: forecasting Euro Area macroeconomic aggregates; backcasting fertility rates by racial category; and forecasting regional housing starts using a seasonally co-integrated model.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166|
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 2000.
"Tests Of Common Stochastic Trends,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 176-199, April.
- Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 1999. "Tests of Common Stochastic Trends," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9902, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Boubacar Mainassara, Y. & Francq, C., 2011. "Estimating structural VARMA models with uncorrelated but non-independent error terms," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 496-505, March.
- Boubacar Mainassara, Yacouba & Francq, Christian, 2009. "Estimating structural VARMA models with uncorrelated but non-independent error terms," MPRA Paper 15141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters,in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Tucker S. McElroy & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2012. "Signal extraction for nonstationary multivariate time series with illustrations for trend inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-060. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.