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Estimating structural VARMA models with uncorrelated but non-independent error terms

Author

Listed:
  • Y. Boubacar Mainassara

    (LMB - Laboratoire de Mathématiques de Besançon (UMR 6623) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE], UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE])

  • Christian Francq

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

Abstract

The asymptotic properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models are derived under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent. Relaxing the independence assumption considerably extends the range of application of the VARMA models, and allows to cover linear representations of general nonlinear processes. Conditions are given for the consistency and asymptotic normality of the QMLE. A particular attention is given to the estimation of the asymptotic variance matrix, which may be very different from that obtained in the standard framework. Modified versions of the Wald, Lagrange Multiplier and Likelihood Ratio tests are proposed for testing linear restrictions on the parameters.
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Suggested Citation

  • Y. Boubacar Mainassara & Christian Francq, 2011. "Estimating structural VARMA models with uncorrelated but non-independent error terms," Post-Print hal-05417844, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05417844
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2010.10.009
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    2. Y. Boubacar Maïnassara & A. Ilmi Amir, 2024. "Portmanteau tests for periodic ARMA models with dependent errors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 164-188, March.
    3. Mélard, Guy, 2022. "An indirect proof for the asymptotic properties of VARMA model estimators," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 96-111.
    4. Bernd Funovits, 2019. "Identification and Estimation of SVARMA models with Independent and Non-Gaussian Inputs," Papers 1910.04087, arXiv.org.
    5. Tucker McElroy & Michael W. McCracken, 2017. "Multistep ahead forecasting of vector time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 495-513, May.
    6. Angelini, Giovanni & Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Fanelli, Luca, 2024. "An identification and testing strategy for proxy-SVARs with weak proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    7. Boubacar Mainassara, Yacouba, 2010. "Selection of weak VARMA models by modified Akaike's information criteria," MPRA Paper 24981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Boubacar Maïnassara, Yacouba & Rabehasaina, Landy, 2025. "Estimation of subcritical Galton Watson processes with correlated immigration," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    9. Pierre Duchesne & Pierre Lafaye de Micheaux, 2013. "Distributions for residual autocovariances in parsimonious periodic vector autoregressive models with applications," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 496-507, July.
    10. Bin Chen & Jinho Choi & Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2017. "Testing for fundamental vector moving average representations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 149-180, March.
    11. Abdelkamel Alj & Christophe Ley & Guy Melard, 2015. "Asymptotic Properties of QML Estimators for VARMA Models with Time-Dependent Coefficients: Part I," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-21, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    13. Marie-Christine Duker & David S. Matteson & Ruey S. Tsay & Ines Wilms, 2024. "Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average Models: A Review," Papers 2406.19702, arXiv.org.
    14. Boubacar Maïnassara, Yacouba & Raïssi, Hamdi, 2015. "Semi-strong linearity testing in linear models with dependent but uncorrelated errors," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 110-115.
    15. Abdelkamel Alj & Rajae Azrak & Christophe Ley & Guy Mélard, 2017. "Asymptotic Properties of QML Estimators for VARMA Models with Time-dependent Coefficients," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 44(3), pages 617-635, September.
    16. Boubacar Mainassara, Yacouba, 2009. "Multivariate portmanteau test for structural VARMA models with uncorrelated but non-independent error terms," MPRA Paper 18990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Abdoulkarim Ilmi Amir & Yacouba Boubacar Maïnassara, 2020. "Multivariate portmanteau tests for weak multiplicative seasonal VARMA models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2529-2560, December.
    18. Boubacar Maïnassara, Yacouba & Ursu, Eugen, 2025. "Diagnostic checking of periodic vector autoregressive time series models with dependent errors," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    19. Yacouba Boubacar Maïnassara & Eugen Ursu, 2023. "Estimating weak periodic vector autoregressive time series," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 32(3), pages 958-997, September.
    20. Guy Melard, 2020. "An Indirect Proof for the Asymptotic Properties of VARMA Model Estimators," Working Papers ECARES 2020-10, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    21. Yacouba Boubacar Maïnassara & Youssef Esstafa & Bruno Saussereau, 2021. "Estimating FARIMA models with uncorrelated but non-independent error terms," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 549-608, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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