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International Asset Markets and Real Exchange Rate Volatility

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Abstract

The real exchange rate is very volatile relative to major macroeconomic aggregates and its correlation with the ratio of domestic over foreign consumption is negative (Backus-Smith puzzle). These two observations constitute a puzzle to standard international macroeconomic theory. This paper develops a two country model with complete asset markets and limited enforcement for international financial contracts that provides a possible explanation of these two puzzles. The model performs better than a standard incomplete markets model with a single non-contingent bond unless very tight borrowing constraints are imposed in the latter. With limited enforcement for both domestic and international financial contracts, the model's asset pricing implications are brought into line with the empirical evidence, albeit at the expense of raising real exchange rate volatility.

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  • Martin Bodenstein, 2006. "International Asset Markets and Real Exchange Rate Volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 884, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:884
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Michael Donadelli & Alessia Varani, 2014. "International Capital Markets Structure, Preferences and Puzzles: The US-China Case," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1362, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Jón Steinsson, 2008. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 519-533, March.
    3. Nuntramas, Phacharaphot, 2011. "Revisiting the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly in a model with non-traded goods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 428-447, April.
    4. Trang Thi-Huyen Dinh & Duc Hong Vo & Anh The Vo & Thang Cong Nguyen, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the Short Run and Long Run: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-11, November.
    5. Cao, Dan & Evans, Martin & Lua, Wenlan, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics Beyond Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 99054, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Mar 2020.
    6. Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio, 2014. "Does financial integration affect real exchange rate volatility and cross-country equity market returns correlation?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 206-220.
    7. Gu, Grace Weishi, 2015. "A Tale of Two Countries: Sovereign Default, Exchange Rate, and Trade," MPRA Paper 61900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-42.
    9. Bianca De Paoli & Hande Küçük, 2015. "News shocks, monetary policy, and foreign currency positions," Staff Reports 750, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Andrés Sagner, 2010. "Implied Probability Distribution in Financial Options," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 597, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Giuliano Curatola & Michael Donadelli & Patrick Grüning, 2022. "Technology trade with asymmetric tax regimes and heterogeneous labour markets: Implications for macro quantities and asset prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3805-3831, October.
    12. A Craig Burnside & Jeremy J Graveline, 2020. "On the Asset Market View of Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 239-260.
    13. Rouillard, Jean-François, 2018. "International risk sharing and financial shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 26-44.
    14. Michael Donadelli & Ivan Gufler, 2021. "Consumption smoothing, risk sharing and financial integration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 143-187, January.
    15. Valery Charnavoki, 2019. "International Risk-Sharing and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Commodity-Exporting Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(2), pages 3-27, June.
    16. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2013. "Addressing International Empirical Puzzles: the Liquidity of Bonds," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 197-215, April.
    17. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Donadelli, Michael & Varani, Alessia, 2015. "International capital markets structure, preferences and puzzles: A “US–China World”," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 85-99.
    18. Kollmann, Robert, 2009. "Domestic Financial Frictions: Implications for International Risk Sharing, Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 70348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. M. Hadzi-Vaskov, 2007. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Explain the Backus-Smith Puzzle? Evidence from the Eurozone," Working Papers 07-32, Utrecht School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk-sharing; Limited enforcement; Real exchange rate; Backus-Smith puzzle; Asset prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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