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Diagnosing labor market search models: a multiple-shock approach

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  • Kenneth Beauchemin
  • Murat Tasci

Abstract

We construct a multiple-shock version of the Mortensen-Pissarides labor market search model to investigate the basic model?s well-known tendency to underpredict the volatility of key labor market variables. Data on U.S. job-finding and job separation probabilities are used to help estimate the parameters of a three-dimensional shock process comprising labor productivity, job separation, and matching or ?allocative? efficiency. Although our multiple-shock model generates some more volatility, it has counterfactual implications for the cyclicality of unemployment and vacancies. Our second exercise forces the model to be the data-generating process to uncover the necessary realizations of all three shocks. We show that the Mortensen-Pissarides labor market search model requires significantly procyclical and volatile matching efficiency and job separations to simultaneously account for high procyclical variations in job-finding probabilities as well as relatively small net employment changes in the data. Hence, the model is more fundamentally flawed than its inability to amplify shocks would suggest. We also show that variation in job separations accounts for most of the employment fluctuations, suggesting that endogenous separations could be the key feature of an improved model. This leads us to conclude that the model lacks mechanisms to generate procyclical matching efficiency and labor force reallocation. As for the latter, we conjecture that nontrivial labor force participation and job-to-job transitions are promising avenues of research. Note: This paper is a revised version of an earlier working paper of the same title, WP 07-20.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Beauchemin & Murat Tasci, 2008. "Diagnosing labor market search models: a multiple-shock approach," Working Papers (Old Series) 0813, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0813
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching efficiency and business cycle fluctuations," Working Paper 2012/07, Norges Bank.
    2. Beauchemin, Kenneth & Tasci, Murat, 2014. "Diagnosing Labor Market Search Models: A Multiple-Shock Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 548-572, April.
    3. Andrea Pescatori & Murat Tasci, 2011. "Search frictions and the labor wedge," Working Papers (Old Series) 1111, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas Velde & Jan Svejnar, 2017. "Effects Of Labor Reallocation On Productivity And Inequality—Insights From Studies On Transition," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 712-732, July.
    5. Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Murat Tasci, 2011. "Search Frictions and the Labor Wedge," IMF Working Papers 2011/117, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2009. "What can a New Keynesian labor matching model match?," Kiel Working Papers 1496, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2010. "Evaluating the search and matching model with sticky wages," Kiel Working Papers 1674, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    8. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, "undated". "Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession," School of Economics Working Papers 2015-14, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    9. Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2017. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Unemployment And Vacancies With Loss Of Skills During Unemployment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1277-1304, September.
    10. Mileva, Mariya, 2013. "Optimal monetary policy in response to shifts in the beveridge curve," Kiel Working Papers 1823, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    11. Mikhail Simutin & JessieJiaxu Wang & Lars Kuehn, 2014. "A Labor Capital Asset Pricing Model," 2014 Meeting Papers 695, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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