IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Projection of Spanish Pension System under Demographic Uncertainty


  • Namkee Ahn
  • Javier Alonso-Meseguer
  • Juan Ramón García


The objective of this paper is to carry out a projection of the pension expenditures under demographic uncertainty in Spain. In order to obtain a stochastic pension expenditure projection, as well as the number of pensioners and the number of contributors, we use a stochastic population projection. Demographic situation with respect to the pension system in Spain shows a dramatic change during the first half of this century. It will be relatively favorable during the first two decades due to the increasing participation and employment rates as well as due to the relatively small civil war generations occupying dependent old ages while the baby boom generations staying in working ages. Starting from around 2030, however, the situation is completely reversed as the baby-boomers start to retire from the labor market while the working age population consists mostly of much smaller baby bust generations. The financial situation of Spanish pension system appears to be affected significantly by the above mentioned demographic situation. During the first few decades it will enjoy a small surplus. Most importantly, the deficit during the subsequent decades will be large and increasing over time. In 2050, the deficit will be higher than 6% of GDP by the probability of 0.90, and will be higher than 15% by the 0.10 probability. In the same year, the range of the debt (accumulated deficit) will be between 77% and 260% of GDP by the 80% confidence interval.

Suggested Citation

  • Namkee Ahn & Javier Alonso-Meseguer & Juan Ramón García, "undated". "A Projection of Spanish Pension System under Demographic Uncertainty," Working Papers 2005-20, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2005-20

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Stochastic demographic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 315-327, November.
    2. Juan F. Jimeno, "undated". "Demografía, empleo, salarios y pensiones," Working Papers 2002-04, FEDEA.
    3. Javier Alonso Meseguer & José A. Herce, "undated". "Balance del sistema de pensiones y boom migratorio en España. Proyecciones del modelo MODPENS de FEDEA a 2050," Working Papers 2003-02, FEDEA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Vidal-Meli· & Inmaculada DomÌnguez-Fabi·n & MarÌa del Carmen Boado-Penas, "undated". "Notional Defined Contribution Accounts (NDCs): Solvency and Risk; Application to the Case of Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy 226, FEDEA.
    2. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Understanding and Forecasting Stock Price Changes," Working Papers 2006-03, FEDEA.
    3. Andrés J. Marchante Mera & Bienvenido Ortega Aguaza & José Sánchez Maldonado, 2006. "Las dimensiones del bienestar en las Comunidades Autónomas Españolas. Un análisis de Sigma y Gamma-Convergencia," Working Papers 2006-05, FEDEA.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2005-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carmen Arias). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.