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Adjusting Government Policies for Age Inflation

In: Demography and the Economy

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  • John B. Shoven
  • Gopi Shah Goda

Abstract

Government policies that are based on age do not adjust to changes in remaining life expectancy and lower mortality risk relative to earlier time periods due to improvements in mortality. We examine four possible methods for adjusting the eligibility ages for Social Security, Medicare, and Individual Retirement Accounts to determine what eligibility ages would be today and in 2050 if adjustments for mortality improvement were taken into account. We find that historical adjustment of eligibility ages for age inflation would have increased ages of eligibility by approximately 0.15 years annually. Failure to adjust for mortality improvement implies the percent of the population eligible to receive full Social Security benefits and Medicare will increase substantially relative to the share eligible under a policy of age adjustment.
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Suggested Citation

  • John B. Shoven & Gopi Shah Goda, 2010. "Adjusting Government Policies for Age Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 143-162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:8410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Victor R. Fuchs, 2018. "“Though Much Is Taken”: Reflections on Aging, Health, and Medical Care," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Health Economics and Policy Selected Writings by Victor Fuchs, chapter 33, pages 403-424, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
    3. Kenneth Manton & Kenneth Land, 2000. "Active life expectancy estimates for the U.S. elderly population: A multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed Cohorts, 1982–1996," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(3), pages 253-265, August.
    4. Auerbach,Alan J. & Lee,Ronald D. (ed.), 2001. "Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662444.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barslund, Mikkel Marten von Werder & von Werder, Marten, 2016. "Measuring ageing and the need for longer working lives in the EU," CEPS Papers 11349, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    2. Zou, Tieding, 2017. "延迟退休的制约因素、政策效果与动态研究方法评价 [Restriction, Policy Effect and Dynamic Research Method to Delay Retirement]," MPRA Paper 85556, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jan 2018.
    3. Carstensen, Laura L. & Reynolds, Megan E., 2023. "Age differences in preferences through the lens of socioemotional selectivity theory," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    4. Mikkel Christoffer Barslund & Marten von Werder, 2016. "Measuring dependency ratios using National Transfer Accounts," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 14(1), pages 155-186.
    5. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:309-320 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. W. Heeringa & A. Bovenberg, 2012. "Generational Impacts of Demographic Changes in Pay-as-you-go Pension Schemes: Measurement and Application to the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire & Walsh, John R., 2009. "Pension Policy: New Evidence on Key Issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS14, June.
    8. Andreea Claudia ȘERBAN & Mirela Ionela ACELEANU, 2015. "Current Demographic Trends – A New Challenge for the Labour Market," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 309-320, Winter.
    9. Jin Hu & Peter-Josef Stauvermann & Surya Nepal & Yuanhua Zhou, 2023. "Can the Policy of Increasing Retirement Age Raise Pension Revenue in China—A Case Study of Anhui Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Willem Heeringa & A.L. Bovenberg, 2009. "Stabilizing pay-as-you-go pension schemes in the face of rising longevity and falling fertility: an application to the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 220, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Narciso, Alexandre, 2010. "The impact of population ageing on international capital flows," MPRA Paper 26457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Social Policy and Population Section, Social Development Division, ESCAP., 2011. "Asia-Pacific Population Journal Volume 26, No. 3," Asia-Pacific Population Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 26(3), pages 1-84, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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