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Stabilizing pay-as-you-go pension schemes in the face of rising longevity and falling fertility: an application to the Netherlands

  • Willem Heeringa
  • A.L. Bovenberg

Rising longevity and falling fertility threaten the sustainability of pay-as-you-go pension schemes. This paper shows that maintaining the intergenerational balance in the Dutch pay-as-you-go pension scheme in the face of increased longevity since the introduction of the scheme in 1957 would have required a gradual increase of the retirement age to at least 68 years for the generation born in 1945. Furthermore, we show that projected increases in labour-force participation rates do not generate sufficient additional tax revenues to subsitute for the dearth of human capital caused by falling fertility rates.

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File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/en/binaries/Working%20paper%20No%20220%202009_tcm47-221307.pdf
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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 220.

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Date of creation: Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:220
Contact details of provider: Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam
Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/

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  1. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3107390 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2009. "Labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts: Empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1224-1233, December.
  3. David Cutler & Ellen Meara, 2001. "Changes in the Age Distribution of Mortality Over the 20th Century," NBER Working Papers 8556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. John B. Shoven & Gopi Shah Goda, 2010. "Adjusting Government Policies for Age Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 143-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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