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Measuring ageing and the need for longer working lives in the EU

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  • Barslund, Mikkel Marten von Werder
  • von Werder, Marten

Abstract

This study considers different ways of measuring the ageing of societies and their implications for public policy. The first part characterises the ongoing ageing of the population in the EU28 by relating it to past and future longer-term demographic trends for broad groups of countries. It goes beyond traditional chronological measures to include recently suggested prospective measures of ageing. The second part of the study is concerned with economic dependency ratios, which are a more relevant measure for summarising the economic challenges related to ageing. Three main findings emerge: first, prospective indicators of ageing reveal the challenge of population ageing to be less onerous than traditional chronological measures would suggest. Their relevance, however, will depend on the degree to which policy changes can respond to the changing age structure of the population. Second, substantial increases in the length of working lives are necessary to maintain current economic dependency ratios. Taking a year-2000 perspective on the economic challenges of ageing shows that substantial progress has been made. Third, looking towards 2050, education will have limited direct impact on the scale of the ageing challenge.

Suggested Citation

  • Barslund, Mikkel Marten von Werder & von Werder, Marten, 2016. "Measuring ageing and the need for longer working lives in the EU," CEPS Papers 11349, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:11349
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Torben Andersen, 2014. "Intergenerational redistribution and risk sharing with changing longevity," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 1-27, February.
    2. John B. Shoven & Gopi Shah Goda, 2010. "Adjusting Government Policies for Age Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 143-162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2013. "The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(4), pages 673-685, December.
    4. Alain Jousten & Mathieu Lefebvre, 2017. "Work Capacity and Longer Working Lives in Belgium," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Capacity to Work at Older Ages, pages 35-58, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2007. "A new perspective on population aging," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(2), pages 27-58, January.
    6. Mikko Myrskylä & Joshua R. Goldstein & Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, 2013. "New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 31-56, March.
    7. Nicole Maestas & Julie Zissimopoulos, 2010. "How Longer Work Lives Ease the Crunch of Population Aging," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
    8. Barslund, Mikkel & von Werder, Marten, 2016. "Measuring Dependency Ratios using National Transfer Accounts," CEPS Papers 11491, Centre for European Policy Studies.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barslund, Mikkel & von Werder, Marten, 2016. "Measuring Dependency Ratios using National Transfer Accounts," CEPS Papers 11491, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    2. repec:zbw:medamr:182240 is not listed on IDEAS

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