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A new perspective on population aging

Author

Listed:
  • Warren C. Sanderson

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Sergei Scherbov

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU))

Abstract

In Sanderson and Scherbov (2005) we introduced a new forward-looking definition of age and argued that its use, along with the traditional backward-looking concept of age, provides a more informative basis upon which to discuss population aging. Age is a measure of how many years a person has already lived. In contrast, our new approach to measuring age is concerned about the future. In this paper, we first explore our new age measure in detail and show, using an analytic formulation, historical data, and forecasts, that it is, in most cases, insensitive to whether it is measured using period or cohort life tables. We, then, show, using new forward-looking definitions of median age and the old age dependency ratio, how combining the traditional age concept and our new one enhances our understanding of population aging.

Suggested Citation

  • Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2007. "A new perspective on population aging," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(2), pages 27-58, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:16:y:2007:i:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Kent Smetters, and Jan Walliser, 2001. "The Coming Generational Storm," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 276, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton, 2004. "Time to include time to death? The future of health care expenditure predictions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 315-327.
    3. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow, 2004. "Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the "Red Herring"," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 652-666, October.
    4. Tim Miller, 2001. "Increasing longevity and medicare expenditures," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(2), pages 215-226, May.
    5. Zhou Yang & Edward C. Norton & Sally C. Stearns, 2003. "Longevity and Health Care Expenditures," Journals of Gerontology: Series B, Gerontological Society of America, vol. 58(1), pages 2-10.
    6. Shiro Horiuchi, 2005. "Tempo effect on age-specific death rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(8), pages 189-200, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hippolyte d'Albis & Fabrice Collard, 2013. "Age groups and the measure of population aging," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(23), pages 617-640, September.
    2. Barslund, Mikkel Marten von Werder & von Werder, Marten, 2016. "Measuring ageing and the need for longer working lives in the EU," CEPS Papers 11349, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    3. Hendrik Hansen & Peter Pflaumer, 2011. "Zur Prognose der Lebenserwartung in Deutschland: Ein Vergleich verschiedener Verfahren," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 203-219, December.
    4. Timothy Riffe, 2015. "The force of mortality by life lived is the force of increment by life left in stationary populations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(29), pages 827-834, April.
    5. Barslund, Mikkel & von Werder, Marten, 2016. "Measuring Dependency Ratios using National Transfer Accounts," CEPS Papers 11491, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    6. Kurkiewicz Jolanta & Knapik Oskar, 2012. "Population ageing patterns in Małopolskie voivodship by poviats until 2030," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 18(18), pages 55-68, November.
    7. Thomas Flochel & Yuki Ikeda & Harry Moroz & Nithin Umapathi, 2014. "Macroeconomic Implications of Aging in East Asia Pacific," World Bank Other Operational Studies 23026, The World Bank.
    8. Ian SPERO & Merlin STONE & Eleni ARAVOPOULOU, 2017. "Multiple Helices as Agents of Change? The Case of the Neighborhoods of the Future Project and the Development of Direction for Policy and Practice on Health, Happiness and Wellbeing for the next Gener," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy Journal, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 5(1), pages 97-117, March.
    9. repec:eee:joecag:v:8:y:2016:i:c:p:85-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00768889 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Timothy Riffe & Jonas Schöley & Francisco Villavicencio, 2015. "A unified framework of demographic time," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aging; historical demography; life expectancy; median age; population forecasting; prospective age;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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