A New Perspective on Population Ageing
In Sanderson and Scherbov (2005) we introduced a new forwardlooking definition of age called “prospective age” and argued that its use, along with the traditional backward-looking concept of age, provides a more informative basis upon which to discuss population ageing. Age is a measure of how many years a person has already lived. Everyone of the same age has lived the same number of years. In contrast, prospective age is concerned about the future. Everyone with the same prospective age has the same expected remaining years of life. In this paper, we first explore the concept of prospective age in detail and show, using an analytic formulation, historical data, and forecasts, that prospective age is, in most cases, insensitive to whether it is measured using period or cohort life tables. We, then, use the two age concepts in concert and demonstrate how this enriches our understanding of population ageing in developed countries since 1960.
|Date of creation:||May 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow, 2004.
"Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the “Red Herring”,"
The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 29(4), pages 652-666, October.
- Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow, 2004. "Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the "Red Herring"," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 652-666, October.
- Tim Miller, 2001. "Increasing longevity and medicare expenditures," Demography, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 215-226, May.
- Shiro Horiuchi, 2005. "Tempo effect on age-specific death rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(8), pages 189-200, November.
- Zhou Yang & Edward C. Norton & Sally C. Stearns, 2003. "Longevity and Health Care Expenditures," Journals of Gerontology: Series B, Gerontological Society of America, vol. 58(1), pages S2-S10.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Kent Smetters, and Jan Walliser, 2001. "The Coming Generational Storm," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 276, Society for Computational Economics.
- Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton, 2004. "Time to include time to death? The future of health care expenditure predictions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 315-327.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vid:eudgrp:0503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Frank Kolesnik)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.