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The end of population aging in high-income countries

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  • Warren C. Sanderson
  • Sergei Scherbov
  • Patrick Gerland

Abstract

Will the population of today’s high-income countries continue to age throughout the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that depend on fixed chronological ages and those that use prospective ages. Conventional measures do not, for example, distinguish between 65-year-olds in 2000 and 65- year-olds in 2100. In making forecasts of population aging over long periods of time, ignoring changes in the characteristics of people can lead to misleading results. It is preferable to use measures based on prospective ages in which expected changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We present probabilistic forecasts of population aging that use conventional and prospective measures for high-income countries as a group. The probabilistic forecasts based on conventional measures of aging show that the probability that aging will continue throughout the century is essentially one. In contrast, the probabilistic forecasts based on prospective measures of population aging show that population aging will almost certainly come to end well before the end of the century. Using prospective measures of population aging, we show that aging in high-income countries is likely a transitory phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov & Patrick Gerland, 2018. "The end of population aging in high-income countries," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 163-175.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:16:y:2018:i:1:p:163-175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2013. "The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(4), pages 673-685, December.
    2. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2005. "Average remaining lifetimes can increase as human populations age," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7043), pages 811-813, June.
    3. Warren C Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov & Patrick Gerland, 2017. "Probabilistic population aging," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-12, June.
    4. Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2008. "The coming acceleration of global population ageing," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7179), pages 716-719, February.
    5. Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2016. "A unifying framework for the study of population aging," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 14(1), pages 007-40.
    6. Sergei Scherbov & Warren C. Sanderson & Marija Mamolo, 2014. "Quantifying policy tradeoffs to support aging populations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(20), pages 579-608.
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