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Aging and age selectivity: Exploring differences across time and space

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  • Scherbov, Sergei
  • Sanderson, Warren C.

Abstract

This paper uses the methodology of the Characteristics Approach to the study of population aging to produce a framework in which population aging is consistently measured from both a cross-sectional and longitudinal perspective. To do this, it introduces the Retrospective Survival Age Threshold (RSAT) to complement the existing Prospective Old-Age Threshold (POAT). The Prospective Old-Age Threshold (POAT) is the forward-looking age at which remaining life expectancy is 15 years. The Retrospective Survival Age Threshold (RSAT) is a backward-looking age reflecting the age by which 79 % of adults (20 + ) have survived. These complementary thresholds, when used together, illuminate variations in trajectories of aging across different mortality regimes. Drawing on national and global data, we show that some countries exhibit parallel movement of POAT and RSAT (implying the expansion of the survival curve), while others display divergent trends linked to shifts in midlife mortality (often implying compression of the survival curve). Our results underscore how combining forward-looking and backward-looking ages can provide richer insights into aging processes than using chronological age alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Scherbov, Sergei & Sanderson, Warren C., 2025. "Aging and age selectivity: Exploring differences across time and space," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:31:y:2025:i:c:s2212828x25000295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John B. Shoven, 2010. "New Age Thinking: Alternative Ways of Measuring Age, Their Relationship to Labor Force Participation, Government Policies, and GDP," NBER Chapters, in: Research Findings in the Economics of Aging, pages 17-31, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Lábaj, Martin & Pružinský, Patrik, 2014. "Prospective ageing and economic growth in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 50-57.
    3. Kotschy, Rainer & Bloom, David, 2023. "Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?," CEPR Discussion Papers 18400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Rainer Kotschy & David E. Bloom & Andrew J. Scott, 2025. "On the Limits of Chronological Age," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 17(1), pages 151-173, August.
    5. John B. Shoven & Gopi Shah Goda, 2010. "Adjusting Government Policies for Age Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 143-162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2013. "The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(4), pages 673-685, December.
    7. Rainer Kotschy & David E. Bloom & Andrew J. Scott, 2024. "On the Limits of Chronological Age," NBER Working Papers 33124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Rainer Kotschy & David E. Bloom & Andrew J. Scott & Rainer Franz Kotschy, 2024. "On the Limits of Chronological Age," CESifo Working Paper Series 11451, CESifo.
    9. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2005. "Average remaining lifetimes can increase as human populations age," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7043), pages 811-813, June.
    10. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2015. "Are We Overly Dependent on Conventional Dependency Ratios?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(4), pages 687-708, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bloom, David E. & Scott, Andrew J., 2025. "Introduction to this Special Issue: The Economics of Ageing," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).

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