IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fao/wpaper/0719.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-Term Rural Demographic Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Anríquez

    (Agricultural and Development Economics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization)

Abstract

This paper studies rural demographic trends at the global level with an analysis of a specially prepared database of population age/gender/rurality tables from population censuses. The focus is to identify the main demographic differences in the evolution of rural and urban populations. Among the main findings of this study, we report that with the exception of Sub- Saharan Africa there is no rural feminization. Also, rural ageing is not observed at aggregate levels in rural regions of the developing world. Perhaps the main adverse demographic trend of rural populations is the high dependency ratios brought about by higher fertility rates. This paper also carries out a census-based cross-country net-migration study identifying the main characteristics of rural out-migration in Latin America, and searches for common threads in East Africa. This analysis shows important improvements of welfare indicators and asset accumulation in rural Latin America (promoting an upward convergence of poorer and richer areas of countries), partially explained by migration. We did not find common characteristics in rural out-migration in East Africa, but report that education is the key asset that enables out-migration from poorer rural communities in East Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Anríquez, 2007. "Long-Term Rural Demographic Trends," Working Papers 07-19, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
  • Handle: RePEc:fao:wpaper:0719
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/ah855e/ah855e.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quisumbing, Agnes R. & Haddad, Lawrence & Pena, Christine, 2001. "Are women overrepresented among the poor? An analysis of poverty in 10 developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 225-269, October.
    2. Valdes, Alberto & Lopez, Ramon E., 1999. "Fighting Rural Poverty In Latin America: New Evidence And Policy," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21581, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Bigsten, Arne & Kebede, Bereket & Shimeles, Abebe & Taddesse, Mekonnen, 2003. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia: Evidence from Household Panel Surveys," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 87-106, January.
    4. Buvinic, Mayra & Gupta, Geeta Rao, 1997. "Female-Headed Households and Female-Maintained Families: Are They Worth Targeting to Reduce Poverty in Developing Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 259-280, January.
    5. Ansley Coale & Judith Banister, 1994. "Five decades of missing females in China," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(3), pages 459-479, August.
    6. Das Gupta, Monica & Li Shuzhuo, 1999. "Gender bias in China, the Republic of Korea, and India 1920-90 - effects of war, famine, and fertility decline," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2140, The World Bank.
    7. Stein Holden & Bekele Shiferaw & John Pender, 2001. "Market Imperfections and Land Productivity in the Ethiopian Highlands," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 53-70.
    8. Mather, David & Donovan, Cynthia & Jayne, Thomas S. & Weber, Michael T. & Chapoto, Antony & Mazhangara, Edward & Bailey, Linda & Yoo, Kyeongwon & Yamano, Takashi & Mghenyi, Elliot W., 2004. "A Cross-Country Analysis of Household Responses to Adult Mortality in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications For HIV/AIDS Mitigation And Rural Development Policies," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54571, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    9. Shahnawaz Malik, 1996. "Determinants of Rural Poverty in Pakistan: A Micro Study," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 171-187.
    10. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    11. Benjamin Davis & Paul Winters & Gero Carletto & Katia Covarrubias & Esteban Quinones & Alberto Zezza & Kostas Stamoulis & Genny Bonomi & Stefania DiGiuseppe, 2007. "Rural Income Generating Activities; A Cross Country Comparison," Working Papers 07-16, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    12. Sen, Amartya, 1998. "Mortality as an Indicator of Economic Success and Failure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 1-25, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    rural feminization; ageing; dependency; rural migration.;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fao:wpaper:0719. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gustavo Anríquez). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/faoooit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.