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The dynamics of fertility under environmental concerns

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Melindi-Ghidi

    (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille France.)

  • Thomas Seegmuller

    (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille France.)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature interested in the new factors that may determine fertility behaviors. Many studies underlay that environmental concerns have a direct effect on householdsÕ fertility decisions. We present a dynamic model that explicitly examines this interplay, considering whether the number of children and environmental concerns may be complementary or substitutable. Interesting results occur when environmental concerns and the number of children are substitutable. At a stable steady state, a stronger effect of environmental concerns on householdÕs preferences reduces the number of children, as also stressed by a recent literature. The dynamics can be described by an inversely U-shaped relationship between fertility and environmental indicators reflecting the impact of economic production, such as the carbon intensity, as we illustrate using data on US States. The dynamics also explain that regions with lower carbon intensity are those with lower fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Melindi-Ghidi & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "The dynamics of fertility under environmental concerns," Working Papers 2024.08, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:fae:wpaper:2024.08
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    File URL: https://faere.fr/pub/WorkingPapers/Melindi-Ghidi_Seegmuller_FAERE_WP2024.08.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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