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Assessing the short-term impact of pension reforms on older workers' participation rates in the EU: a diff-in-diff approach

Author

Listed:
  • Alfonso Arpaia
  • Kamil Dybczak
  • Fabiana Pierini

Abstract

After presenting an extensive overview of the reforms undertaken in the EU between 1990 and 2006, The paper assess with a diff-in-diff technique the short-term effects of pension reforms on the participation rates of individuals aged between 50 and 64 years. The analysis suggests that in the short-term pension reforms have different effects on the participation rate of men and women. First, reforms tightening the access to early retirement have a positive effect on female participation, but reduce somewhat male participation rates. Second, the results for non-fundamental reforms are more uncertain. Third, reforms that change the way of financing pensions or the eligibility conditions (what we dubbed fundamental reforms), usually with long phasing-in periods, may have unintended short-run effects on the female participation rate. Thus, our findings point at the importance of designing pension reforms and strategies to reform social security that reduce the risks of undesired effects on the decision to remain in the labour market. Workers' information about pension rules and uncertainties about long transition periods may influence in the short-term the retirement decision in a way which is not consistent with the intended effects of the reform

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso Arpaia & Kamil Dybczak & Fabiana Pierini, 2009. "Assessing the short-term impact of pension reforms on older workers' participation rates in the EU: a diff-in-diff approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 385, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0385
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2007. "A Theory of Retirement," NBER Working Papers 13630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
    4. Heijdra, Ben J. & Romp, Ward E., 2009. "Retirement, pensions, and ageing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 586-604, April.
    5. David H. Autor & John J. Donohue & Stewart J. Schwab, 2004. "The Employment Consequences of Wrongful-Discharge Laws: Large, Small, or None at All?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 440-446, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bouton, Laurent & Lizzeri, Alessandro & Persico, Nicola, 2016. "The Political Economy of Debt and Entitlements," CEPR Discussion Papers 11459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ardito, Chiara, 2017. "Rising Pension Age in Italy: Employment Response and Program Substitution," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201722, University of Turin.
    3. Giorgio Brunello & Monica Langella, 2013. "Bridge jobs in Europe," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Bachmann, Ronald & Baumgarten, Daniel & Kröger, Hanna & Schaffner, Sandra & Vorell, Matthias & Fertig, Michael, 2010. "Study on various aspects of labour market performance using micro data from the European Union Labour Force Survey," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69936.
    5. Cristiano Antonelli, 2017. "The Engines of the Creative Response: Reactivity and Knowledge Governance," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 47(2), pages 9-30, Julio-Dic.

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    Keywords

    Diff-in-Diff; pension reforms; participation rates; Arpaia; Dybczak; Pierini;

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