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International Transmission of the 2008 Crisis: Evidence from the Japanese stock market

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  • HOSONO Kaoru
  • TAKIZAWA Miho
  • TSURU Kotaro

Abstract

We investigate the international transmission of the credit crisis triggered by the Lehman default in September 2008 using Japan's stock market data. Using cumulative returns (CR) during the crisis, starting from the day of Lehman's default and lasting until the day prior to the news of the TARP capital injection, we find that CR is negatively correlated with the export-to-sales ratio, the loan-to-asset ratio, and the share owned by foreign investors. Once controlling for market risk, however, cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) during the same period shows a different picture. CAR is not negatively correlated with export shares or the share owned by foreign investors, which implies that neither trade channels nor portfolio-rebalancing by foreigners are unique characteristics of the crisis, but can be observed in normal downturns. We find that CAR is negatively correlated with the loan-to-asset ratio, suggesting that market participants were worried about the credit crunch. We also find that CAR is negatively correlated with the shares of exports to North America and Asia after controlling for total exports, suggesting that the composition of export destination matters. Finally, we find that the concentration of export destination is also relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • HOSONO Kaoru & TAKIZAWA Miho & TSURU Kotaro, 2011. "International Transmission of the 2008 Crisis: Evidence from the Japanese stock market," Discussion papers 11050, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:11050
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    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/11e050.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "Delaying the Inevitable: Interest Rate Defense and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 404-424, April.
    2. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. YOKOYAMA Izumi & HIGA Kazuhito & KAWAGUCHI Daiji, 2015. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Employment in a Segmented Labor Market," Discussion papers 15139, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. HOSONO Kaoru & TAKIZAWA Miho & TSURU Kotaro, 2013. "International Transmission of the 2008-09 Financial Crisis: Evidence from Japan," Discussion papers 13010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. HOSONO Kaoru & TAKIZAWA Miho & TSURU Kotaro, 2014. "The Impact of a Demand Shock on the Employment of Temporary Agency Workers: Evidence from Japan during the global financial crisis," Discussion papers 14046, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Kaoru Hosono & Miho Takizawa & Kotaro Tsuru, 2016. "International Transmission of the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: Evidence from Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 295-328, September.

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