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State dependence and causal feedback of poverty and fertility in Ethiopia

  • Aassve, Arnstein
  • Kedir, Abbi
  • Weldegebriel, Habtu Tadesse

The paper implements simultaneous random effect models as a means to analyse causality issues related to poverty and fertility in Ethiopia, a country which is plagued by high and persistent poverty and very high fertility rates in rural areas. Using longitudinal data from both urban and rural areas of Ethiopia, we analyse the relationship between childbearing and poverty. In addition to identifying state dependence in poverty and fertility, we investigate to what extent fertility act as a feedback mechanism leading to higher poverty and vice versa. We find that poverty itself has little effect on fertility, whereas there is evidence of state dependence in poverty and important feedback from fertility on future poverty. Not unexpected, we find substantial differences between rural and urban areas.

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File URL: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/iser/2006-30.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute for Social and Economic Research in its series ISER Working Paper Series with number 2006-30.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2006
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Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2006-30
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Web page: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/
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  1. Assefa Admassie, 2002. "Explaining the High Incidence of Child Labour in Sub–Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-275.
  2. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
  3. Bigsten, Arne & Kebede, Bereket & Shimeles, Abebe & Taddesse , Mekonnen, 2002. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia: Evidence from Household Panel Surveys," Working Papers in Economics 65, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  4. Lanjouw, Peter & Ravallion, Martin, 1995. "Poverty and Household Size," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1415-34, November.
  5. Ravallion, Martin & Bidani, Benu, 1993. "How robust is a poverty profile?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1223, The World Bank.
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  7. Moshe Hazan & Binyamin Berdugo, 2002. "Child Labour, Fertility, and Economic Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 810-828, October.
  8. Joseph Hotz, V. & Klerman, Jacob Alex & Willis, Robert J., 1993. "The economics of fertility in developed countries," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 275-347 Elsevier.
  9. T. Paul Schultz, 2005. "Fertility and Income," Working Papers 925, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  10. Ravallion, Martin, 1996. "Issues in measuring and modeling poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1615, The World Bank.
  11. Robert Eastwood & Michael Lipton, 1999. "The impact of changes in human fertility on poverty," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 1-30.
  12. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
  13. Birdsall, Nancy M. & Griffin, Charles C., 1988. "Fertility and poverty in developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 29-55, April.
  14. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "The Demand for and Supply of Births: Fertility and Its Life Cycle Consequences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 992-1015, December.
  15. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
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