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State Dependence and Causal Feedback of Poverty and Fertility in Ethiopia

  • Arnstein Aassve
  • Abbi M. Kedir

    ()

  • Habtu Tadesse Woldegebriel

The paper implements simultaneous random effect models as a means to analyse causality issues related to poverty and fertility in Ethiopia, a country which is plagued by high and persistent poverty and very high fertility rates in rural areas. Using longitudinal data from both urban and rural areas of Ethiopia, we analyse the relationship between childbearing and poverty. In addition to identifying state dependence in poverty and fertility, we investigate to what extent fertility act as a feedback mechanism leading to higher poverty and vice versa. We find that poverty itself has little effect on fertility, whereas there is evidence of state dependence in poverty and important feedback from fertility on future poverty. Not unexpected, we find substantial differences between rural and urban areas.

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File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp06-7.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 06/7.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:06/7
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