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Understanding Revolution in the Middle East: The Central Role of the Middle Class

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  • Ishac Diwan

    (Harvard Kennedy School)

Abstract

The paper argues that the changing interests of the middle class can explain the authoritarianism of the past and the more recent shift to democracy in some, but not all the countries of the Middle East. The framework proposed includes the evolving class structure and related class preference for economic and social policies. It compares the possible coalitions between classes that can form either an autocratic bargain or a democratic coalition, and it explores the conditions under which a shift from one sort of equilibrium to the other can occur. It then reviews the evidence in two areas. First, it looks directly at changes in opinion in Egypt, Iran, and Morocco and asks whether these are consistent with the predictions of the theory. Second, it examines the corporate sector in Egypt around the time of the revolution, in order to understand the performance of “crony capitalism” and to evaluate whether it may have affected the incentives of the middle class to defect.

Suggested Citation

  • Ishac Diwan, 2012. "Understanding Revolution in the Middle East: The Central Role of the Middle Class," Working Papers 726, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:726
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    12. Ishac Diwan, 2013. "Who are the Democrats? Leading Opinions in the Wake of Egypt’s 2011 Popular Uprisings," CID Working Papers 256, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Witthuhn, Stefan, 2017. "Corruption and political stability: Does the youth bulge matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 47-70.
    2. Caroline Krafft & Ragui Assaad & Hanan Nazier & Racha Ramadan & Atiyeh Vahidmanesh & Sami Zouari, 2019. "Estimating poverty and inequality in the absence of consumption data: an application to the Middle East and North Africa," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, January.
    3. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Colette Salemi, 2023. "Socioeconomic Status and the Changing Nature of School-to-Work Transitions in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(4), pages 697-723, August.
    4. Ishac Diwan & Zafiris Tzannatos & Tarik Akin, 2018. "Debunking myth: economic values in the Arab World through the prism of opinion polls," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 31-63, January.
    5. Caroline Freund & Melise Jaud, 2014. "On The Determinants Of Democratic Transitions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Ishac Diwan (ed.), UNDERSTANDING THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE ARAB UPRISINGS, chapter 5, pages 81-110, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Sadik-Zada, Elkhan Richard & Gatto, Andrea, 2021. "The puzzle of greenhouse gas footprints of oil abundance," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Melani Cammett & Nisreen Salti, 2016. "Popular Grievances and Perceptions of Socioeconomic Conditions in the Arab Region Prior to the Uprisings," Working Papers 1006, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2016.
    8. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Stefan Witthuhn, 2014. "Demographic Transition and Political Stability: Does Corruption Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5133, CESifo.
    9. Amr Hosny & Magda Kandil & Hamid Mohtadi, 2014. "What does Egypt's Revolution Reveal about its Economy?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 589-611, December.
    10. Wu Fengyu & Nugent Jeffrey B., 2018. "Explaining Gender Differences in Socioeconomic and Political Objectives in the Middle East," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22, April.
    11. Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada, 2020. "Distributional Bargaining and the Speed of Structural Change in the Petroleum Exporting Labor Surplus Economies," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(1), pages 51-98, January.
    12. Liu, Jenny & Modrek, Sepideh & Sieverding, Maia, 2019. "The effects of political protests on youth human capital and well-being in Egypt," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    13. Ibrahim Elbadawi & Samir Makdisi, 2013. "Understanding Democratic Transitions in The Arab World," Working Papers 765, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2013.
    14. Elkhan Richard Sadik‐Zada, 2021. "Natural resources, technological progress, and economic modernization," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 381-404, February.
    15. Mohamad Al-Ississ & Ishac Diwan, 2016. "Preference for Democracy in the Arab World," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(4), pages 16-26.
    16. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Pooya Alaedini & Khayyam Azizimehr, 2017. "Middle Class in Iran: Oil Rents, Modernization, and Political Development," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201756, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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