IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/381.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Capital Inflows Cause Currency Black Markets in MENA? Causality Tests for Heterogeneous Panels

Author

Listed:
  • Osman Suliman

    (Department of Economics, Millersville University , USA)

Abstract

This paper examines feedback causality between capital inflow components and currency black market premiums (BMP) in a panel of eight Middle Eastern and North African countries (MENA) over the period 1984-2004. MFR and average Wald statistics approaches were employed to test for causality. Both approaches gave similar results. Causality results and policy implications are different for middle income, low income, and oil and non-oil countries. Interactions of capital inflow components and BMP with openness and human capital may act as mitigating factors, offsetting some capital outflows associated with currency crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Osman Suliman, 2008. "Do Capital Inflows Cause Currency Black Markets in MENA? Causality Tests for Heterogeneous Panels," Working Papers 381, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/381_Osman-Suliman.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://bit.ly/2opImtJ
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. Jan Kregel, 2004. "Can we create a stable international financial environment that ensures net resource transfers to developing countries?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 573-590.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    4. Sheikh, Munir A., 1976. "Black market for foreign exchange, capital flows and smuggling," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 9-26, March.
    5. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 421-480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233424, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    7. Michael P. Dooley & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1994. "Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Is the Debt Crisis History?," NBER Working Papers 4792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani‐Óskooee & Gour G. Goswami, 2005. "The Impact of Corruption on the Black Market Premium," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(3), pages 483-493, January.
    10. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    11. Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1996. "Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(1), pages 27-50, January.
    12. Assaf Razin, 2002. "FDI Contribution to Capital Flows and Investment in Capacity," NBER Working Papers 9204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Nair-Reichert, Usha & Weinhold, Diana, 2001. "Causality Tests for Cross-Country Panels: A New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 153-171, May.
    14. Martin, Lawrence & Panagariya, Arvind, 1984. "Smuggling, trade, and price disparity: A crime-theoretic approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 201-217, November.
    15. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
    16. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    17. Shang-Jin Wei & Yi Wu, 2002. "Negative Alchemy? Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows, and Currency Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 461-506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Fernando Seabra & Lisandra Flach, 2005. "Foreign direct investment and profit outflows: a causality analysis for the Brazilian economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15.
    19. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    20. repec:cto:journl:v:21:y:2001:i:1:p:101-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. World Bank, 2005. "World Development Indicators 2005," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12426, December.
    22. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2005:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. McDermott, John H., 1989. "Foreign-exchange rationing and employment in industrializing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 245-264, November.
    24. Coondoo, Dipankor & Dinda, Soumyananda, 2002. "Causality between income and emission: a country group-specific econometric analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 351-367, March.
    25. repec:wbk:wbpubs:12425 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    27. Usha Nair‐Reichert & Diana Weinhold, 2001. "Causality Tests for Cross‐Country Panels: a New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 153-171, May.
    28. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour G. Goswami, 2005. "The Impact of Corruption on the Black Market Premium," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(3), pages 483-493, January.
    29. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    30. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    31. Jansen, Karel, 1995. "The macroeconomic effects of direct foreign investment: The case of Thailand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 193-210, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Takero Doi, 2010. "Poverty Traps With Local Allocation Tax Grants In Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 466-487, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. SULIMAN, Osman, 2013. "Do Capital Inflows Cause Currency Black Markets In Mena Countries? Causality Tests For Heterogeneous Panels," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 187-202.
    2. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    3. Mohamed Osman Suliman & Mahmoud Sami Nabi, 2008. "The Institutional Environment and the Banking – Growth Nexus: Theory and Investigation for MENA," Working Papers 392, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2008.
    4. Andreas Dietrich, 2012. "Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 915-944, December.
    5. Weichun Chen & Judith A. Clarke & Nilanjana Roy, 2014. "Health and wealth: Short panel Granger causality tests for developing countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 755-784, September.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    7. Töngür, Ünal & Elveren, Adem Yavuz, 2014. "Deunionization and pay inequality in OECD Countries: A panel Granger causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 417-425.
    8. Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2009. "The Granger-causality between health care expenditure and output: a panel data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 511-518.
    9. Cândida Ferreira, 2013. "Bank market concentration and bank efficiency in the European Union: a panel Granger causality approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 365-391, September.
    10. Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Kose, Nezir, 2011. "Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 870-876, May.
    11. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    12. Jochen Hartwig, 2008. "Has Health Capital Formation Cured 'Baumol's Disease'? - Panel Granger Causality Evidence for OECD Countries," KOF Working papers 08-206, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    13. Paula Neto & António Brandão & António Cerqueira, 2008. "The Impact of FDI, Cross Border Mergers and Acquisitions and Greenfield Investments on Economic Growth," FEP Working Papers 291, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    14. Yan Liang, 2007. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Provide Desirable Development Finance? The Case of China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(2), pages 104-120, March.
    15. M E Haque & D H Kim, 2003. "Public Investment in Transportation and Communication and Growth:A Dynamic Panel Approach," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 31, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    16. Laaksonen-Craig, Susanna, 2004. "Foreign direct investments in the forest sector: implications for sustainable forest management in developed and developing countries," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 359-370, June.
    17. Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2004. "A Panel Data Approach for Income-Health Causality," Working Papers FNU-47, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
    18. Adolfo Sachsida & Mario Mendonça & Paulo Loureiro & Maria Gutierrez, 2010. "Inequality and criminality revisited: further evidence from Brazil," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 93-109, August.
    19. Lanzafame, Matteo, 2013. "Crime and regional growth in Italy," MPRA Paper 44343, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Michael Feil, 2012. "Taxation and unemployment: (systematic) evidence from panel data analysis," EcoMod2012 4472, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.