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Predictable recoveries

Author

Listed:
  • Cai, Xiaoming
  • Den Haan, Wouter J.
  • Pinder, Jonathan

Abstract

Should an unexpected change in real GNP of x% lead to an x% change in the forecasts of future GNP? The answer could be no even if GNP is a random walk. We show that US economic downturns often go together with predictable short-term recoveries and with changes in long-term GNP forecasts that are substantially smaller than the initial drop. But not always! Essential for our results is that GNP forecasts are not based on a univariate time series model, which is not uncommon. Our alternative forecasts are based on a simple multivariate representation of GNPís expenditure components.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Xiaoming & Den Haan, Wouter J. & Pinder, Jonathan, 2015. "Predictable recoveries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86289, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:86289
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/86289/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    2. Wouter J. Den Haan & Steven W. Sumner & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2011. "Bank Loan Components and the Time‐varying Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(312), pages 593-617, October.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-3070, December.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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