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News Shocks or Correlated Sunspots? An Observational Equivalence Result in Linear Rational Expectations Model

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  • Marco M. Sorge

Abstract

This paper studies identification of linear rational expectations models under news shocks. Exploiting the general martingale difference solution approach, we show that news shocks models are observationally equivalent to a class of indeterminate equilibrium frameworks which are subject only, though arbitrarily, to i.i.d. fundamental shocks. The equivalent models are characterized by a lagged expectations structure, which arises typically when choice variables are predetermined or rather based on past information with respect to current observables. This particular feature creates room for serially correlated sunspot variables to arise in equilibrium reduced forms, whose dynamics can be equivalently induced by news shocks processes. This finding, which is inherent to the rational expectations theoretical construct, calls for carefully designing empirical investigations of news shocks in estimated DSGE models.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco M. Sorge, 2011. "News Shocks or Correlated Sunspots? An Observational Equivalence Result in Linear Rational Expectations Model," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2011_09, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2011_09
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    File URL: http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2011_09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
    2. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "On the dynamic implications of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 96-98, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational expectations; News shocks; Indeterminacy; Observational equivalence.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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