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The dynamics of firms’ export portfolio: A network analysis with an application to Mexico and Bulgaria

  • Juan de Lucio

    (High Council of Spanish Chambers of Commerce)

  • Raúl Mínguez

    (High Council of Spanish Chambers of Commerce)

  • Asier Minondo

    (Deusto Business School)

  • Francisco Requena

    (University of Valencia)

In this paper we use network-analysis tools to identify communities in the web of Bulgarian and Mexican exporters' destinations. We show that the network-based community measure is superior to extended gravity measures to predict the dynamics of firm's export-portfolio. This superiority stems from the fact that community is a revealed measure, is country-specific and can be calculated at the industry level. We show that a one unit increase in the number of destinations previously served by the exporter within a community rises between 49% and 66% the probability of selecting a new export destination in that community. The networkbased community variable improves the accuracy of the model between 8% and 17% relative to a model that only includes gravity and extended-gravity variables. We also show that industry-specific communities and general communities play similar roles in determining the dynamics of Bulgarian and Mexican exporters' portfolio.

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File URL: ftp://147.156.210.157/RePEc/pdf/eec_1316.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
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Paper provided by Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia in its series Working Papers with number 1316.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1316
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  1. Albornoz, Facundo & Calvo Pardo, Héctor F. & Corcos, Gregory & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2012. "Sequential exporting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 17-31.
  2. Ricardo Hausmann & Cesar A. Hidalgo, 2011. "The Network Structure of Economic Output," Papers 1101.1707, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2012.
  3. Fabrice Defever & Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch, 2011. "Spatial Exporters," CESifo Working Paper Series 3672, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Thomas Chaney, 2011. "The Network Structure of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 16753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2009. "The World Trade Network," Working Papers 51-2009, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Mar 2009.
  6. Daniel X. Nguyen, 2010. "Demand Uncertainty: Exporting Delays and Exporting Failures," Discussion Papers 10-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  7. Raja Kali & Javier Reyes, 2007. "The architecture of globalization: a network approach to international economic integration," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 595-620, July.
  8. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
  9. Morales, Eduardo & Sheu, Gloria & Zahler, Andrés, 2011. "Gravity and extended gravity: estimating a structural model of export entry," MPRA Paper 30311, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Juan de Lucio & Ra�l Mínguez-Fuentes & Asier Minondo & Francisco Requena-Silvente, 2011. "The extensive and intensive margins of Spanish trade," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 615-631, January.
  11. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
  12. Lawrence Hubert & Phipps Arabie, 1985. "Comparing partitions," Journal of Classification, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 193-218, December.
  13. Kali, Raja & Reyes, Javier & McGee, Joshua & Shirrell, Stuart, 2013. "Growth networks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 216-227.
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