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The dynamics of firms’ export portfolio: A network analysis with an application to Mexico and Bulgaria

Author

Listed:
  • Juan de Lucio

    (High Council of Spanish Chambers of Commerce)

  • Raúl Mínguez

    (High Council of Spanish Chambers of Commerce)

  • Asier Minondo

    (Deusto Business School)

  • Francisco Requena

    (University of Valencia)

Abstract

In this paper we use network-analysis tools to identify communities in the web of Bulgarian and Mexican exporters' destinations. We show that the network-based community measure is superior to extended gravity measures to predict the dynamics of firm's export-portfolio. This superiority stems from the fact that community is a revealed measure, is country-specific and can be calculated at the industry level. We show that a one unit increase in the number of destinations previously served by the exporter within a community rises between 49% and 66% the probability of selecting a new export destination in that community. The networkbased community variable improves the accuracy of the model between 8% and 17% relative to a model that only includes gravity and extended-gravity variables. We also show that industry-specific communities and general communities play similar roles in determining the dynamics of Bulgarian and Mexican exporters' portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan de Lucio & Raúl Mínguez & Asier Minondo & Francisco Requena, 2013. "The dynamics of firms’ export portfolio: A network analysis with an application to Mexico and Bulgaria," Working Papers 1316, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
  • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1316
    as

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    File URL: ftp://147.156.210.157/RePEc/pdf/eec_1316.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    export market; network analysis; modularity; extended gravity; Mexico; Bulgaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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