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Forecasting the euro area job vacancy rate with earnings calls data

Author

Listed:
  • Consolo, Agostino
  • Foroni, Claudia
  • Lissona, Claudio
  • Schroeder, Christofer

Abstract

We analyse whether textual information extracted from firms’ earnings calls can improve forecasts of the euro area job vacancy rate. Using transcripts from euro area headquartered firms, we construct a monthly indicator of labour demand based on keywords related to labour market pressures and include it into a mixed frequency Bayesian VAR alongside standard hard and soft indicators. A pseudo–real-time evaluation shows that earnings calls provide timely and valuable signals for tracking vacancy dynamics. Among soft indicators, factors limiting production deliver the largest forecasting gains, while real labour-market indicators such as unemployment add little once qualitative signals are included. Forecast improvements are largely driven by information from the manufacturing sector, whose signals prove substantially more informative than those from services, especially when paired with earnings calls. Taken together, our results highlight the usefulness of high-frequency text-based information for improving short-term labour-demand forecasts in the euro area. JEL Classification: C53, E24, E27

Suggested Citation

  • Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Lissona, Claudio & Schroeder, Christofer, 2026. "Forecasting the euro area job vacancy rate with earnings calls data," Working Paper Series 3269, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263269
    Note: 3572376
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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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