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Non-Stationary Inflation and the Markup: an Overview of the Research and some Implications for Policy

  • Bill Russell

This paper reports on research into the negative relationship between inflation and the markup. It is argued that this relationship can be thought of as ‘long-run’ in nature which suggests that inflation has a persistent effect on the markup and, therefore, the real wage. A ‘rule of thumb’ from the estimates indicate that a 10 percentage point increase in inflation (as occurred worldwide in the 1970s) is associated with around a 7 per cent fall in the markup accompanied by a similar increase in the real wage. It is argued that movements of this magnitude in the markup and the real wage will have important implications for a range of economic outcomes such as unemployment, employment and investment.

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File URL: http://www.dundee.ac.uk/media/dundeewebsite/economicstudies/documents/discussion/DDPE_191.pdf
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Paper provided by Economic Studies, University of Dundee in its series Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics with number 191.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dun:dpaper:191
Contact details of provider: Postal: Dundee, DD1 4HN
Phone: (01382) 344375
Fax: (01382) 344691
Web page: http://www.dundee.ac.uk/econman/
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  1. Roland Benabou & Jerzy Konieczny, 1993. "On Inflation and Output with Costly Price Changes: A Simple Unifying Result," NBER Technical Working Papers 0135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Carlin, Wendy & Soskice, David, 1990. "Macroeconomics and the Wage Bargain: A Modern Approach to Employment, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198772446, March.
  3. Kyle Bagwell, 2004. "Collusion and Price Rigidity," Theory workshop papers 658612000000000081, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Johansen, Søren, 1995. "A Stastistical Analysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 25-59, February.
  5. Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2006. "A markup model for forecasting inflation for the euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 495-511.
  6. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics: Differences and common themes," Discussion Papers 2, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
  7. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Cooper, Russell, 1989. "Multiplicity of Equilibria and Fluctuations in Dynamic Imperfectly Competitive Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 353-57, May.
  8. Danziger, Leif, 1988. "Costs of Price Adjustment and the Welfare Economics of Inflation and Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 633-46, September.
  9. Robert S. Pindyck & Andres Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 4380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics : Differences and common themes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 719-754, May.
  11. Benabou, R., 1991. "Inflation and Markups: Theories and Evidence from the Retail Trade Sector," Working papers 587, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  12. Peter A. Diamond, 1988. "Search, Sticky Prices, and Inflation," Working papers 509, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  13. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
  14. Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2001. "An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 221-240.
  15. Naish, Howard F, 1986. "Price Adjustment Costs and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210), pages 219-30, May.
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  17. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1983. "Aggregate Consequences of Fixed Costs of Price Adjustment [Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process]," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 433-36, June.
  18. Bill Russell & Jonathan Evans & Bruce Preston, . "The Impact Of Inflation and Uncertainty On The Optimum Price Set By Firms," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 084, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  19. Benabou, Roland, 1988. "Search, Price Setting and Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 353-76, July.
  20. Konieczny, Jerzy D, 1990. "Inflation, Output and Labour Productivity When Prices Are Changed Infrequently," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 57(226), pages 201-18, May.
  21. Yu-Fu CHEN & Bill RUSSELL, 2002. "An Optimising Model of Price Adjustment with Missing Information," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/03, European University Institute.
  22. Parkin, Michael, 1986. "The Output-Inflation Trade-off When Prices Are Costly to Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 200-224, February.
  23. Kuran, Timur, 1986. "Price Adjustment Costs, Anticipated Inflation, and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 407-18, May.
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