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Non-Stationary Inflation and the Markup: an Overview of the Research and some Implications for Policy

  • Bill Russell

This paper reports on research into the negative relationship between inflation and the markup. It is argued that this relationship can be thought of as ‘long-run’ in nature which suggests that inflation has a persistent effect on the markup and, therefore, the real wage. A ‘rule of thumb’ from the estimates indicate that a 10 percentage point increase in inflation (as occurred worldwide in the 1970s) is associated with around a 7 per cent fall in the markup accompanied by a similar increase in the real wage. It is argued that movements of this magnitude in the markup and the real wage will have important implications for a range of economic outcomes such as unemployment, employment and investment.

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File URL: http://www.dundee.ac.uk/media/dundeewebsite/economicstudies/documents/discussion/DDPE_191.pdf
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Paper provided by Economic Studies, University of Dundee in its series Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics with number 191.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dun:dpaper:191
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  1. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
  2. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J, 1993. "German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Themes," CEPR Discussion Papers 777, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Banerjee, A. & Cockerell, L. & Russell, B., 1998. "An I(2) Analysis of Inflation and the Markup," Economics Series Working Papers 99203, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Peter A. Diamond, 1993. "Search, Sticky Prices, and Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 53-68.
  6. Benabou, Roland & Konieczny, Jerzy D, 1994. "On Inflation and Output with Costly Price Changes: A Simple Unifying Result," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 290-97, March.
  7. Timur Kuran, 1986. "Price Adjustment Costs, Anticipated Inflation, and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 407-418.
  8. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Cooper, Russell, 1989. "Multiplicity of Equilibria and Fluctuations in Dynamic Imperfectly Competitive Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 353-57, May.
  9. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
  10. Carlin, Wendy & Soskice, David, 1990. "Macroeconomics and the Wage Bargain: A Modern Approach to Employment, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198772446, December.
  11. Susan Athey & Kyle Bagwell & Chris Sanchirico, 1998. "Collusion and Price Rigidity," Working papers 98-23, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  12. Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2006. "A markup model for forecasting inflation for the euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 495-511.
  13. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1983. "Aggregate Consequences of Fixed Costs of Price Adjustment [Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process]," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 433-36, June.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
  15. Konieczny, Jerzy D, 1990. "Inflation, Output and Labour Productivity When Prices Are Changed Infrequently," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 57(226), pages 201-18, May.
  16. Yu-Fu CHEN & Bill RUSSELL, 2002. "An Optimising Model of Price Adjustment with Missing Information," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/03, European University Institute.
  17. Danziger, Leif, 1988. "Costs of Price Adjustment and the Welfare Economics of Inflation and Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 633-46, September.
  18. Roland Benabou, 1988. "Search, Price Setting and Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 353-376.
  19. Naish, Howard F, 1986. "Price Adjustment Costs and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210), pages 219-30, May.
  20. Bill RUSSELL & Jonathan EVANS & Bruce PRESTON, 2002. "The Impact of Inflation and Uncertainty on the Optimum Markup Set by Firms," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/02, European University Institute.
  21. Johansen, S., 1991. "A Statistical Analsysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables," Papers 77, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  22. Parkin, Michael, 1986. "The Output-Inflation Trade-off When Prices Are Costly to Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 200-224, February.
  23. Benabou, Roland, 1992. "Inflation and markups : Theories and evidence from the retail trade sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 566-574, April.
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