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ARCH and structural breaks in United States inflation

  • Bill Russell

United States Phillips curves are routinely estimated without accounting for the shifts in mean inflation. As a result we may expect the standard estimates of Phillips curves to be biased and suffer from ARCH. We demonstrate this is indeed the case. We also demonstrate that once the shifts in mean inflation are accounted for the ARCH is largely eliminated in the estimated model and the model defining expected rate of inflation in the New Keynesian model plays no significant role in the dynamics of inflation.

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File URL: http://www.dundee.ac.uk/media/dundeewebsite/economicstudies/documents/discussion/DDPE_277.pdf
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Paper provided by Economic Studies, University of Dundee in its series Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics with number 277.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dun:dpaper:277
Contact details of provider: Postal: Dundee, DD1 4HN
Phone: (01382) 344375
Fax: (01382) 344691
Web page: http://www.dundee.ac.uk/econman/
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  1. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Bill Russell, 2007. "Non-Stationary Inflation and Panel Estimates of United States Short and Long-run Phillips curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 200, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  5. Russell, Bill & Chowdhury, Rosen Azad, 2012. "Estimating United States Phillips Curves With Expectations Consistent With The Statistical Process Of Inflation," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-13, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  8. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
  9. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  10. Cosimano, Thomas F & Jansen, Dennis W, 1988. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 409-21, August.
  11. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
  12. Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Ng, Serena, 1999. "Testing for ARCH in the presence of a possibly misspecified conditional mean," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 257-279, December.
  13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  14. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  15. Bill Russell, 2006. "Non-Stationary Inflation and the Markup: an Overview of the Research and some Implications for Policy," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 191, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
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