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Estimating the Inflationary Effects of Depreciation

Author

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  • Tony Richards

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Glenn Stevens

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper adopts a simple econometric approach to estimate the effects of exchange rate changes on the rate of inflation in Australia. It uses a mark-up model of price determination, in which output costs are determined by input prices. The analysis suggests that imported cost pressures have been more important in the 1980s than in the 1970s. This may be attributable to increasing openness of the Australian economy over this period. In addition, an analysis of import prices finds no evidence of “absorption” by foreign suppliers, and suggests that Australian import prices could have fallen in 1986 if not for the depreciation. This finding is attributable to the falls in the world prices of tradeable goods in 1985 and 1986. Finally, a counterfactual simulation of the estimated equations suggests that the total price effects of the 1985 and 1986 depreciations have been considerably larger than commonly argued.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony Richards & Glenn Stevens, 1987. "Estimating the Inflationary Effects of Depreciation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8713, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp8713
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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1987/8713.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. J T Kneeshaw, 1995. "A survey of non-financial sector balance sheets in industialised countries: implications for the monetary policy transmission mechanism," BIS Working Papers 25, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Banerjee, Anindya & Mizen, Paul & Russell, Bill, 2007. "Inflation, relative price variability and the markup: Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 82-100, January.
    3. Elaine Chung & Marion Kohler & Christine Lewis, 2011. "The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 9-16, September.
    4. Asli Gunay & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan & Erinc Yeldan, 2005. "Real wages, profit margins and inflation in Turkish manufacturing under post-liberalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(16), pages 1899-1905.
    5. Banerjee, Anindya & Russell, Bill, 2005. "Inflation and measures of the markup," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 289-306, June.
    6. Jacqueline Dwyer & Christopher Kent & Andrew Pease, 1993. "Exchange Rate Pass-through: The Different Responses of Importers and Exporters," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9304, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2001. "An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 221-240.
    8. Bill Russell, 2006. "Non-Stationary Inflation and the Markup: an Overview of the Research and some Implications for Policy," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 191, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    9. Bill Russell, 2002. "The Long Run Relationships among Price Variability, Inflation and the Markup," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 127, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    10. Jacqueline Dwyer & Ricky Lam, 1994. "Explaining Import Price Inflation: A Recent History of Second Stage Pass-through," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9407, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000. "The Relationship between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Economies and Australia," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 119, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.

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